A U.S. official stated that commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has surged over recent weeks, with oil shipments now exceeding 10 million barrels per day, bolstered by American military support.
Since the signing of an interim peace agreement between U.S. President Trump and Iran, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has grown substantially, completely reversing the previous paralysis caused by conflict. The official, who requested anonymity to discuss internal assessments, indicated that Tehran has been caught off guard by this development, which has exposed the limits of Iran's current ability to fully blockade this critical waterway. This situation has also spurred recent attacks by Iran on vessels in the vicinity of the strait.
During the conflict, Iran gained negotiating leverage by threatening to close the strait, prompting Trump to accept a ceasefire and talks, as dwindling oil reserves and soaring energy prices made the war politically unsustainable. The Iranian regime has consistently insisted on retaining partial control over maritime traffic and has even hinted that some vessels might eventually need to pay transit fees.
Even before the interim ceasefire was reached, the U.S. had taken steps to weaken Tehran's control over the Strait of Hormuz. The official stated that a multi-layered defensive military support system, including naval and air assets coordinated by U.S. Central Command, has boosted the confidence of shipping companies to transport oil via the southern route closer to Oman.
The figure of 10 million barrels of oil transiting daily, disclosed by the U.S. official, aligns broadly with shipping data previously reported by Bloomberg.
U.S. negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner held indirect talks with Iran in Qatar this week, during which the issue of transit through the Strait of Hormuz remained unresolved. Iran's nuclear program and its ability to control strait traffic were central topics in the discussions.
The official said the U.S. is pressing Iran to adhere to the maritime provisions of a memorandum of understanding and to reach a long-term agreement ensuring commercial passage. The memorandum stipulates a waiver of transit fees for a 60-day negotiation period, with arrangements for the period thereafter left for discussion. Both Trump and U.S. Secretary of State Rubio have stated that transit fees and maritime service charges are unacceptable in any final agreement.
Iran has not publicly accepted the U.S. demands regarding the strait.
Last week, Iran used a drone to attack a vessel flying the Singapore flag. This incident triggered a series of retaliatory strikes, putting the temporary ceasefire between the two nations in jeopardy.
The U.S. official stated that the Trump administration views last week's attack as an attempt by Tehran to reassert control over the strait after realizing its limited capacity to paralyze its traffic.
The official added that Iran's limited ability to monitor shipping far from its own coastline hinders Tehran's awareness of traffic activities in the southern channel of the strait, preventing it from promptly gauging the scale of oil shipments in that area.
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