Based on the established fuel pricing mechanism, the next adjustment window is scheduled for 24:00 on September 11th (next Friday). The current pricing cycle has now completed half of its statistical period, with the midpoint showing a significant shift in market dynamics. Data indicates that the previous downward trend has reversed into a projected increase, with estimated gains already surpassing 0.15 yuan per liter, suggesting that this cycle is highly likely to conclude with another price hike.
The primary driver behind this upward pressure is the escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the elevated shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz. This has led to a rapid increase in the risk premium embedded in crude oil prices, causing substantial gains across both international and domestic crude benchmarks throughout the week.
Calculations from the fifth working day of the cycle indicate that gasoline and diesel are expected to rise by 160 yuan per tonne and 155 yuan per tonne, respectively. When translated to retail prices, 92-octane gasoline is projected to increase by 0.13 yuan per liter, 95-octane gasoline by 0.14 yuan per liter, and 0-diesel by 0.13 yuan per liter. As a result, filling a standard 50-liter fuel tank would cost motorists an additional 6.50 to 7.00 yuan.
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