During Thursday's Asian trading session, gold (XAU/USD) extended its rebound, once again approaching the key $5,200 level. Persistent inflows of safe-haven capital remain the primary driver behind the rise in gold prices, as markets maintain high vigilance regarding uncertainties in U.S. trade policy and escalating risks in the Middle East.
At the policy level, despite a U.S. Supreme Court ruling limiting certain import tariffs, the Trump administration continues to impose an additional 10% tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, with indications that it may be raised to 15% in the future.
Such policy volatility increases global supply chain risks, dampening appetite for risk assets and, in turn, boosting demand for gold as a safe haven. Geopolitically, the U.S. and Iran are set to hold a third round of nuclear talks. With a significant buildup of U.S. military forces in the Middle East, concerns are growing that the U.S. may take military action against Iran.
In his State of the Union address, President Trump emphasized that he would not allow Iran to obtain nuclear weapons, keeping geopolitical tensions elevated and providing ongoing risk premium support for gold. Additionally, a slight weakening of the U.S. dollar has created a favorable external environment for gold's advance. Although the Federal Reserve maintains an overall hawkish stance, markets continue to price in potential future interest rate cuts.
Current market expectations suggest the Fed may implement three 25-basis-point rate cuts, reducing the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets and thereby driving capital into the gold market.
From a 4-hour chart perspective, gold maintains an overall bullish trend structure. After successfully breaking above the $5,100 level, the upward trend has been reinforced. The price is currently trading above the 200-period simple moving average (SMA), situated near $4,948, which serves as a medium-to-long-term defensive level, indicating that the broader upward structure remains intact.
The RSI indicator holds near 59, residing in bullish territory but not yet entering overbought conditions, suggesting that buying interest persists, though upward momentum has not been fully unleashed. The MACD indicator has weakened slightly, with the fast line crossing below the signal line and entering negative territory, indicating a deceleration in short-term upward momentum and pointing to potential technical consolidation at elevated levels.
Initial support lies near $5,150, an area that aligns with recent short-term consolidation lows. A further pullback would make $5,100 a critical defensive level. A break below $5,100 could lead to a test of the $5,050 zone. However, with the 200-period SMA positioned below $4,950, the medium-term bullish structure is expected to hold.
On the upside, resistance is first observed around $5,220. A decisive break above this level could pave the way for a test of $5,260 or higher.
Gold is currently being driven by a combination of trade policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks, maintaining a medium-term bullish outlook. A weaker U.S. dollar and market expectations for future accommodative policies provide sustained support for gold prices. However, the decline in MACD momentum suggests a moderation in the short-term upward pace.
In the near term, close attention should be paid to whether gold can break through the $5,200–$5,260 range. If the price fails to sustain above $5,220, it may enter a phase of high-level consolidation. A strong breakout, however, could signal the start of a new upward leg.
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