In the gold market on June 17th, yesterday's session saw minor fluctuations, closing with a small bullish candle on the daily chart featuring an upper shadow.
Today's price action could swing in either direction, although the short-term bullish bias remains intact. The immediate upside focus is on the 4340-4360 zone. A sustained break above this area could pave the way for a move towards 4400 and potentially the 4450-4500 region.
However, as long as a decisive breakout hasn't occurred, the possibility of continued consolidation and correction persists. In such a scenario, attention would shift to a potential retest of the moving average support band around 4285-4275.
With the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision scheduled for tomorrow morning, market sentiment is relatively cautious. This range-bound trading could very well extend until the announcement. The primary market direction will ultimately hinge on the outcome of the Fed's decision.
Looking at the hourly chart, the price held above the 4300 level yesterday, rallying to near 4354 before encountering resistance. It failed to surpass the previous day's high, with the 4370-4350 area acting as a consistent barrier and the prevailing downtrend line remaining unbroken. This reinforces the view of ongoing consolidation.
Immediate resistance is now seen in the 4342-4347 zone. A failure to break above here could present a shorting opportunity. On the downside, short-term support lies at 4320-4313, followed by the key 4300 level.
In summary, expect continued range-trading ahead of the rate announcement, with a primary bias towards buying on dips. Short positions should only be considered at key resistance levels.
Suggested Trading Strategy
Consider buying on dips near the 4285-4275 support area, placing a stop-loss below 4268, targeting 4340-4350. A break above this target could extend gains to 4400.
Alternatively, look for short opportunities near the 4342-4347 resistance zone or around 4400, using an 8-point stop-loss for a 20-50 point target.
If the price directly breaks above 4350, a breakout trade may be considered based on real-time market structure, with specific entry points to be advised during the session.
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