VanEck's Head of Digital Asset Research, Matthew Siegel, stated on Wednesday that despite Bitcoin's year-to-date decline, he believes a major upward price movement is imminent. Siegel indicated that Bitcoin reaching $1 million represents the firm's "base case scenario," a milestone that could be achieved within the next five years. He added, "This is a super trend, but it will be extremely volatile along the way." Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $81,000. Although it remains down for the year, it has experienced a strong rebound over the past month.
Siegel pointed to several factors supporting his bullish outlook. Bitcoin's correlation with the tech-heavy Nasdaq index has reached its highest level in five years, positioning the recent price surge as part of a broader macroeconomic trend. More importantly, he noted that the derivatives market is not showing signs of overheating, suggesting the current rally is driven more by short covering than by speculative froth.
Siegel also highlighted demographic trends, comparing the adoption process of Bitcoin to the evolution of the video game industry. He stated, "Thirty years ago, only kids played video games. Now Elon Musk plays video games. People don't quit games, and they won't quit Bitcoin either."
Market participants view the $80,000 level as psychologically significant. Richard Galvin, Executive Chairman of crypto investment firm DACM, noted that this price point has been a major resistance level for the market. A decisive break above it could provide further upward momentum for the asset class. Meanwhile, data from prediction market Kalshi suggests the market currently assigns roughly a 50% probability to Bitcoin reclaiming $100,000 by 2026.
Since the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran in late February, Bitcoin has rallied approximately 20%, demonstrating the digital asset's resilience amid geopolitical shocks and rising oil prices. Recent signs of de-escalation in the Middle East have also boosted investor appetite for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
The crypto market is also being buoyed by expectations of favorable policy developments. Investors are optimistic that US lawmakers may reach an agreement on provisions related to stablecoin yields, which could remove a major obstacle for cryptocurrency-related legislation to advance in the Senate. After months of intense negotiation, a significant breakthrough has been achieved in US crypto market structure legislation. Senators Thom Tillis and Angela Alsobrooks have reached a comprehensive agreement on stablecoin yield provisions, clearing a primary hurdle for the advancement of the CLARITY Act in the Senate.
According to the obtained text, the compromise imposes significant restrictions on rewards and returns offered by stablecoins. The agreement explicitly prohibits all reward mechanisms that are "economically or functionally equivalent" to interest on bank deposits. This broad restriction is designed to prevent stablecoins from directly competing with traditional bank savings products, addressing long-standing banking industry concerns about "deposit flight." However, the agreement avoids a blanket ban, retaining considerable flexibility. Stablecoin balances can still be used for reward mechanisms, but they must pass an "equivalency test." This means crypto companies can still offer incentives to users under specific conditions, but high-yield models that mimic bank interest structures will be blocked.
This compromise is seen as a pivotal point for the broader digital asset market structure legislation. The bill aims to delineate the regulatory authority of the SEC and CFTC over different segments of the digital asset ecosystem. With the stablecoin yield issue resolved, the legislative process is expected to accelerate. Significant progress has also been reported in areas such as token classification, DeFi regulation, and asset tokenization. The final text of the CLARITY Act is anticipated to be finalized and submitted for a vote in the Senate Banking Committee shortly. Banking sector concerns over potential deposit diversion from stablecoin yields were a major sticking point that had stalled the legislation. The newly reached agreement is viewed by the market as a pragmatic step towards clearer US cryptocurrency regulation, granting the banking system greater control while preserving core customer acquisition and incentive mechanisms for the crypto industry.
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