CITIC Securities has issued a research report stating that amid the overseas expansion of biosimilars, HENLIUS (02696) is demonstrating significant global value, with a clear second growth curve in innovative drugs and abundant catalysts from major products and early-stage pipelines.
Using a DCF model, the firm estimates the fair equity value of HENLIUS at HK$66.7 billion, corresponding to a 2026 target price of HK$122 per share, while maintaining a "Buy" rating.
The overseas expansion of biosimilars is underpinned by a global market foundation, where external demand and internal supply reinforce each other, and China's advantages are expected to match the global window of opportunity.
Core overseas expansion capabilities are expected to drive a global value re-rating of the biosimilar sector.
CITIC Securities notes that the CMC platform determines the upper limit of developing highly complex products, while global market access and commercialization capabilities drive backend value realization.
Moving from single-product licensing to platform-level collaboration and independent commercialization: the partnership between HENLIUS and Sandoz has been upgraded to a platform collaboration covering up to 10 biosimilars.
The clinical operations, global registration, and business collaboration capabilities accumulated in biosimilars can be repurposed for innovative monoclonal antibodies and ADCs, serving as a capability springboard for the globalization of innovative drugs.
Using the market size of originator drugs as a benchmark, the firm has established a region-specific M×Q×P×S volume-price model based on: (1) volume and price changes (drug type affects substitution speed and price levels); (2) competitive landscape (launch sequence and overseas expansion model determine product share); and (3) regulatory and policy differences across global regions, with separate calculations for China, the United States, Europe, and other markets, aggregated year by year.
On the innovation pipeline front, the company's existing innovative products continue to ramp up, while the pipeline under development is rich, with multiple blockbuster products expected to launch and generate substantial cash flow.
HLX43 (PD-L1 ADC) is expected to read out dense data at WCLC/ESMO 2026, validating its broad-spectrum therapeutic potential. Serplulimab has the world's first 4-year OS rate data for extensive-stage small cell lung cancer, with ASTRUM-006 published in The Lancet main journal and included in CSCO guidelines, while the U.S. bridging study ASTRIDE has completed enrollment.
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