Tesla Analyst Predicts Q1 Deliveries Beat As Price Cuts Help Snare Market, Mind Share In China

ZINGER KEY POINTS

• Dan Ives said Tesla should achieve a volume of 420,000 units this quarter.

• Wedbush sees China production trending at an annual run-rate of one million units.

Tesla, Inc. is scheduled to report its first-quarter deliveries number this weekend, with all eyes on whether the recent price cuts across geographies have pushed up volumes.

Tesla Analyst: Daniel Ives has an Outperform rating and a $225 price target on Tesla shares, suggesting roughly 19% upside from current levels.

Tesla Thesis:

Q1 Outperformance Likely: Since the price cuts for Model Y/3 vehicles announced early this year, demand has been robust, led by the key China region, Ives said in a note. He added that this should help the company achieve a volume of 420,000 units this quarter, with potential for upside depending on logistics around deliveries this week.

Ives said he estimates Model Y/3 deliveries of 402,000 units and Model S/X deliveries of around 18,000 units. He added that the mix will likely skew to the upside for Model Y, thanks to the price cuts in the U.S. and China.

No Margin Hit: The analyst said he does not expect a margin hit from the price cuts as the company chases volume. Auto gross margin should be able to meet expectations, he said. Tesla has been aggressive and strategic about its Model Y/3 price actions in China, and this has helped it snare both market and mind share from domestic players, he added.

Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas said in a recent note that he sees margin impact from the price cuts but conceded that it was rational competitive behavior.

The Elon Musk-led company is on pace for recording vehicle volume of 1.8 million units in 2023, but questions remain about the balance between volume and margins, the analyst said.

China Momentum Shifting In Favor Of Tesla: Wedbush sees China production trending at an annual run-rate of one million units, with increased scale and scope. “Domestic players such as BYD Company Ltd , Nio, Inc., and Xpeng, Inc. remain very formidable competitors but ultimately we believe market share shifts are now favoring Tesla in China,” the investment firm added.

Tesla is now positioned well with its price points, with demand outstripping supply so far in 2023, Ives said.