Tesla vs. Exxon Is the Perfect Recovery Bet

The Wall Street Journal2021-03-10

This isn’t about the short-term greed stock markets are so often accused of, our columnist writes From the start of February to Monday’s close, Tesla was down almost 30% and Exxon Mobil up more than ...

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But the first is only partly true and the second clearly false. In fact the moves reveal two bigger trends: the stimulus-driven economy and its effect on bond yields.\nTesla is a bet on the long term and Exxon is a bet on the short term. Last year, investors were convinced to look to the long run by a combination of awful short-run prospects and the Federal Reserve’s crushing of interest rates and bond yields. Since November, investors have increasingly focused on short-run profits as both trends reverse, although on Tuesday the sensitivity to Treasurys showed up in the other direction as a sharp drop in yields helped Tesla stock leap 20%.\nCyclical stocks, those most sensitive to short-run economic growth, have been doing well since Covid-19 vaccines raised hopes of economic reopening. The stimulus trade accelerated in February as it became clear that President Biden’s$1.9 trillion packagewould pass. Cyclical stocks such as airlines and oil companies, commodities such as oil and copper, and bond yields all soared.\nExxon is what a winner looks like in this new world of stimulus-driven demand.Oil is the most sensitive commodityto global consumption, and everywhere is heading for reopening this year. 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