OpenAI's commanding lead in the AI chatbot sector is being steadily eroded by its rivals. Data from mobile applications reveals that ChatGPT's market share among US daily active users has plummeted significantly over the past year, from 69.1% down to 45.3%, while Google's Gemini and Elon Musk's Grok have experienced rapid expansion, signaling a reshaping of the competitive landscape. According to information provided to Big Technology by the mobile app analytics and intelligence firm Apptopia on February 4th, between January 2025 and January 2026, Gemini's market share climbed from 14.7% to 25.1%, whereas Grok's share skyrocketed from 1.6% to 15.2%. This shift illustrates that after a year of intense rivalry, the AI chatbot market has transitioned from a single dominant player to a multi-polar contest among several strong contenders.
Despite the decline in its market share, ChatGPT's absolute user count continues to grow. Data from the analytics company Similarweb indicates that traffic to ChatGPT's desktop and mobile web platforms increased from 3.8 billion visits to 5.7 billion visits, marking a 50% surge. However, Gemini's growth rate is even more staggering, with its traffic exploding from 267.7 million visits to 2 billion visits, an astounding increase of 647%.
Concurrently, users are demonstrating a trend of utilizing multiple platforms, with 20% of users now employing two or more applications; furthermore, there are significant disparities in usage duration—the average daily time spent by Claude users has surged from 10 minutes to over 30 minutes, indicating the market is progressing towards differentiated competition. ChatGPT's growth has decelerated, allowing competitors to close the gap rapidly. ChatGPT maintained robust growth for the majority of 2025, but experienced a dip in traffic during November and December, which coincided with Gemini hitting its own growth peak. David Carr, Insights News and Research Editor at Similarweb, noted that after reaching a peak of over 6 billion visits in October, ChatGPT's traffic subsequently receded. Preliminary data suggests that ChatGPT's traffic saw some recovery in January 2026, but it has not yet returned to its peak levels. Meanwhile, Gemini continues its strong upward trajectory. Based on preliminary estimates for January, Gemini's traffic grew by 17% month-over-month. This growth pattern demonstrates that Google is effectively leveraging its advantages in search and the mobile ecosystem to successfully steer users towards its AI offerings. The ascent of Grok is equally noteworthy. Developed by Musk's xAI, this chatbot increased its market share nearly tenfold within a year, from 1.6% to 15.2%, establishing itself as the third major player in the market.
Market growth is beginning to plateau, hinting at a potential chasm between early adopters and the mainstream user base. After a period of rapid expansion throughout much of 2025, the chatbot market's growth has started to level off in recent months. Adam Blacker, Director of Public Relations at Apptopia, commented that the market is stabilizing; although generative AI applications have not yet peaked, this represents an early inflection point, suggesting a possible gap between early adopters and the broader user population. Data shows that the majority of devices measured by Apptopia have never used a chatbot, implying that substantial growth potential remains untapped. The enthusiasm of early adopters fueled the development of generative AI in the years following ChatGPT's launch, but achieving mass-market adoption will still require time.
Analysis suggests that this market characteristic indicates the AI chatbot industry is still in its early developmental stages, and the battle for market share is far from over. Companies must discover effective pathways to break through the circle of early adopters and reach mainstream users. Users are increasingly adopting a multi-platform approach, with significant variations in usage time spent. The competition within the chatbot market is not a zero-sum game. Data reveals that by the end of 2025, 20% of chatbot users utilized at least two applications, a sharp increase from just 5% at the end of 2023. This indicates that users are selecting different AI tools based on varying needs, rather than limiting themselves to a single platform.
Pure user numbers alone cannot fully depict the market dynamics, as the time users spend on different chatbots varies significantly. Although Anthropic's Claude lags far behind ChatGPT or Gemini in terms of user numbers, the time spent by its users has grown substantially, surging from an average of about 10 minutes per day in June 2025 to over 30 minutes currently.
This trend shows that the AI chatbot market is moving towards differentiated competition. User stickiness and engagement depth might be more accurate indicators of a product's true value than mere market share, creating viable niches for smaller competitors that focus on specific use cases.
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