According to the latest survey by TrendForce, as the Chinese Lunar New Year falls in February, three major LCD TV panel makers, including BOE (000725.SZ), TCL CSOT, and HKC, have planned five to ten-day shutdowns for their backend module plants to reduce labor costs and mitigate risks of subsequent inventory build-up, with front-end production lines also implementing synchronized output reductions. It is estimated that the overall utilization rate for LCD TV panels in the first quarter will decrease by 3.5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter to 87.7%, shifting the supply-demand balance to a relatively tight situation.
From the supply perspective, aside from the planned production cuts by the three major panel makers during the Chinese New Year period, the inherently fewer working days in February will contribute to an overall quarter-on-quarter decline of 3.8% in TV panel supply area for the first quarter. Concurrently, recent announcements from China regarding the continued promotion of trade-in policies, which still offer a 15% subsidy for Tier-1 energy efficiency TVs, coupled with stockpiling activities driven by the 2026 FIFA soccer events set to commence in the first quarter, are expected to cushion the seasonal decline in demand area for TV panels, limiting the quarter-on-quarter decrease to just 1.8%.
Looking ahead to 2026, TV panel manufacturers will continue to pursue a strategy of "gradually increasing screen sizes." However, growth in the ultra-large size TV panel segment is anticipated to slow due to relatively weaker demand in certain markets and the high baseline from previous periods. Consequently, panel makers are focusing this year on adjusting their product mix to steer market demand gradually away from smaller sizes like 23.6-inch and 32-inch towards larger sizes such as 43-inch and 50-inch. This structural shift is expected to help boost the average size of TV panels and the overall demand area.
TrendForce analysis indicates that the international landscape remains fraught with variables, and factors such as soaring memory prices introduce uncertainty into future TV panel demand. Enhancing production capacity scheduling and order flexibility to rapidly adapt to market changes will be a core challenge for panel manufacturers in 2026. In the long term, the absence of significant new capacity additions and large-scale investments in LCD TV panel production is viewed as a positive signal for both panel prices and the overall health of the industry.
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