SPDB International has released a research report stating that for POP MART (09992), with the launch of new products, such as Labubu 5.0, and management's efforts to enhance communication with the market, the certainty of overseas revenue growth is expected to strengthen. This is anticipated to gradually improve market sentiment, which is favorable for an upward revaluation of the company. Based on a prudent and conservative approach, the institution has raised its revenue and net profit forecasts for 2026-2027. It maintains a "Buy" rating on POP MART and its position as a top pick within the sector.
Key points from SPDB International are as follows:
Strong domestic sales performance is being driven by IPs other than The Monsters. Since the beginning of 2026, POP MART's domestic revenue has shown strong growth momentum, particularly from IP products other than Labubu, including SKULLPANDA, CRYBABY, and DIMOO. Based on various data sources, the institution estimates that POP MART's domestic market revenue for January-February grew 130%-160% year-on-year. A recent company announcement indicated that The Monsters series accounted for approximately one-quarter of the company's total sales volume in 2025, with over 100 million units sold. This suggests that the robust performance of non-Monsters IPs provides significant upside potential for the company's revenue growth in 2026.
Optimism remains for the long-term expansion trend of the overseas business. The company's rapid store expansion in overseas markets, shifting the channel focus from online to offline, ongoing localization of internal operations, and the upcoming launch of new Labubu products are all expected to drive overseas revenue growth in 2026 and over the long term. It is noteworthy that the Americas market contributed less than 40% of the company's total overseas revenue in 2025. This implies that, even if short-term sales trends in the US market are uncertain, strong demand from other overseas markets is still likely to drive positive overall overseas revenue growth for the company in 2026.
Valuation is considered severely undervalued even based on conservative forecasts. The institution's revenue and net profit forecasts for 2026 are based on relatively conservative assumptions. These include domestic revenue for Q2-Q4 2026 remaining flat compared to Q1 2026 in absolute terms, full-year 2026 overseas revenue growing 5% year-on-year, and the company's net profit margin expanding slightly by 1 percentage point compared to 2025. Given the company's rapid profit growth, strong fundamentals, and long-term growth drivers, the institution believes POP MART's current valuation is deeply undervalued. Furthermore, the institution sees significant potential for its 2026 actual revenue performance to exceed these conservative forecasts.
Investment risks include a slowdown in industry demand and greater-than-expected competition from domestic brands.
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