International gold prices have experienced significant volatility this year. After hitting a record high of $5,600 per ounce, prices reversed sharply, undergoing a substantial correction over six weeks with a maximum pullback exceeding 15%. As of April 25, spot London gold continues to seesaw around the $4,700 level, leaving investors grappling with the dilemma of fearing both missing out and buying at a peak.
Why has the short-term gold market been so volatile? Does gold retain its medium to long-term investment value amidst these high-level fluctuations? Addressing these core concerns of market participants, multiple experts provided clear insights at the "Navigating Gold Trends, Mastering Change—Second Precious Metals Investment Strategy Conference" hosted by JD Wealth on April 24. They indicated that the logic driving gold pricing is shifting from traditional interest rate influences to a dual-driver model based on risk premium and currency credibility, signaling gold's entry into a new long-term cycle.
Jin Canrong, a professor at Renmin University of China, stated directly that "gold has become the most reliable safe haven." Ji Ming, Chief Analyst at the SD GOLD Group Trading Center, projected that "gold prices are highly likely to surpass previous highs within the next 6 to 12 months." Concurrently, several experts recommended regular fixed-amount investments for retail investors and suggested a practical gold strategy: "buy more during significant dips, buy less during minor dips, and strictly control leverage."
Geopolitical risks are reshaping gold pricing, but experts assert that its long-term value remains unchanged. In traditional gold analysis frameworks, Federal Reserve interest rate expectations and US dollar trends are typically considered the primary pricing factors. However, experts at the conference emphasized that this logic is undergoing profound restructuring.
Professor Jin Canrong pointed out that persistent geopolitical risks, such as the US-Iran conflict, have significantly eroded global trust in the US dollar. While cryptocurrencies have gained attention, they carry extremely high risks. "In comparison, gold has become the most reliable safe haven," he said. Regarding the recent price retreat from over $5,000, Jin characterized it as a short-term phenomenon, attributing it to Gulf countries, hindered by受阻的石油出口, being forced to sell gold for cash to purchase necessities like food. He further analyzed that the current strategic stalemate between China and the US, coupled with China's growing competitiveness in industry, technology, and military fields amid rising external uncertainties, further highlights gold's strategic value as a tool for wealth preservation and appreciation. He explicitly advised, "if you have some spare money, it's better to save up and buy gold."
Echoing the geopolitical perspective, Ji Ming, Chief Analyst at the SD GOLD Group Trading Center, provided a systematic interpretation from a pricing logic angle. He stated that gold's core function is hedging against fiat currency risk and cannot be simply analyzed using the US dollar index or monetary policy frameworks. Since the US designated China as its primary strategic competitor in 2017, the fundamental driver behind gold's rise from $1,100 per ounce to this year's peak of $5,600 is the global order entering a restructuring phase. "When people find the political and economic situation difficult to comprehend, they allocate part of their funds from stocks and bonds to gold," Ji said. He indicated that with the current Sino-US strategic stalemate, robust central bank purchasing, and strong physical demand, the driving forces behind gold pricing have shifted from monetary policy to macro-order changes and de-dollarization logic. After reviewing recent market movements, he predicted that gold might maintain a fluctuating pattern in the short term, constrained by high oil prices and a wait-and-see Fed. However, once the Middle East situation is digested by the market, allocation funds and central bank buying are expected to re-enter, making a breakthrough above previous highs highly probable within the next six to twelve months.
Jiang Xianwei, Senior Global Market Strategist at Morgan Asset Management (China), supplemented the current market environment from a macro-fundamental perspective. He believes overseas economies are generally stable, with corporate earnings gaining market recognition. Although the Middle East situation might push short-term inflation expectations higher, potentially delaying Fed rate cuts, the market has shown some signs of "desensitization" to geopolitical risks. Regarding asset allocation, Jiang noted that equity assets might relatively outperform this year, but the precious metals sector presents structural opportunities amidst differentiation. Gold still faces short-term pressures from suppressed financial attributes and a strong dollar diverting safe-haven demand. However, with global central banks net buyers of gold for 19 consecutive months, combined with de-dollarization trends and tight supply-demand dynamics due to mining bottlenecks, the medium to long-term support for gold remains firm. In contrast, silver possesses the potential for excess returns driven by industrial demand from sectors like photovoltaics and AI computing.
Overall, participating experts generally agreed that the current decade-long rise in gold is not based on traditional expectations of falling interest rates but is rooted in the broader context of profound changes in the global order. The prolongation of geopolitical risks, the structural force of central bank gold buying, and the gradual erosion of US dollar credibility amid de-dollarization trends collectively form the core drivers reshaping gold's long-term value. As long as this underlying logic within the international landscape does not fundamentally reverse, gold's long-term allocation value will not be shaken by short-term fluctuations.
Based on a clear understanding of gold's long-term trend, experts also provided practical and actionable investment strategies tailored to the current high-level volatility.
Zhu Jinyue, a fund manager at CCB Principal Fund, suggested that the allocation ratio for gold within household assets could be set between 10% and 20%. He offered a detailed, layered approach: 5% for long-term hedging against fiat currency risk, 5% for responding to interest rate downturns, and the remaining portion leveraging gold's characteristics of limited physical supply and rising investment demand. He emphasized that at the current stage, investors should not bet on short-term rate cut expectations but focus more on the long-term trend of weakening US dollar credibility. Simultaneously, gold's extremely low correlation with mainstream assets gives it unique risk diversification value in the present turbulent environment.
In 2025, international gold prices experienced a historic bull market, rising approximately 65% for the year, accompanied by a structural shift in the gold consumption market. A report from the China Gold Association showed that in the first three quarters of 2025, gold jewelry consumption was 270.04 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 32.5%, while consumption of gold bars and coins, representing investment demand, was 352.116 tons, a year-on-year increase of 24.55%. This marked the first time in 30 years that investment gold consumption surpassed jewelry gold consumption.
Hu Jinlin, Chairman of Guorun Gold, shared insights from the industry perspective, noting that after gold prices surpassed 1,000 yuan per gram, consumers became more cautious about "paying for beauty," but physical gold investment significantly warmed up. Sales of small-denomination gold bars, such as 0.5-gram and 1-gram bars, increased substantially. "Small-denomination, fixed-amount investment" purchases are becoming a favored gold accumulation strategy among young people. However, he also reminded investors that clear tax policies are lacking for the physical gold recycling环节, and investors need to closely monitor related developments.
Regarding market timing, Ji Ming, after reviewing price movements, reiterated that short-term gold prices might fluctuate, but a new high is highly likely within 6 to 12 months. Multiple experts reached a consensus at the conference: given the significantly amplified daily volatility of gold prices, retail investors should abandon short-term timing and adopt the more certain strategy of fixed-amount investing. For specific operations, the mantra "buy more during big dips, buy less during small dips, and strictly control leverage" was repeatedly emphasized. Ji Ming concluded, "First, think about how much you can afford to lose, then think about how much you can earn. The trend remains unchanged, but volatility has become the norm."
JD.com began its gold business布局 in 2019. It was learned that on April 2, Industrial Bank announced a cooperation with JD.com for the distribution of accumulated gold products. Currently, the JD Finance platform aggregates accumulated gold products from several institutions including ICBC, China Minsheng Bank, China Zheshang Bank, and China Guangfa Bank.
The head of JD Finance's precious metals business stated at the conference that JD Gold has evolved from a single product offering to a comprehensive matrix service system covering physical gold, accumulated gold, gold ETFs, gold futures, and gold recycling, meeting diverse user needs from long-term allocation to flexible trading, and from purchase to liquidation.
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