SDIC Securities released a research report stating that the implementation of the 2026 home appliance trade-in policy, compared to 2025, features a narrowed scope of subsidy support, a reduced subsidy ratio, and a greater focus on high-efficiency products for the coming year. The overall content is largely in line with market expectations and is anticipated to stimulate marginal improvement in domestic appliance sales while promoting optimization of the industry's product structure. It is projected that domestic home appliance consumption will maintain steady performance, with white goods and black goods enterprises possessing advantages in R&D, channels, and branding set to benefit more from the new policy. Regarding exports, Sino-US trade conflicts are easing, tariff pressures are expected to decrease, and the gradual release of global production capacity by appliance companies, coupled with sustained contributions from emerging markets, bodes well.
The main viewpoints of SDIC Securities are as follows: Event: On December 30th, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance issued the "Notice on Implementing the Policy of Large-Scale Equipment Updates and Consumer Goods Trade-ins for 2026." The policy supports home appliance trade-ins. Individual consumers purchasing products meeting Grade 1 energy efficiency or water efficiency standards among six categories—refrigerators, washing machines, televisions, air conditioners, computers, and water heaters—will receive a subsidy equivalent to 15% of the sales price. Each consumer can receive a subsidy for one item per category, with a maximum subsidy of 1,500 yuan per item. Additionally, the National Development and Reform Commission, in conjunction with the Ministry of Finance, has pre-allocated the first batch of the 2026 ultra-long-term special treasury bond plan totaling 62.5 billion yuan to local governments to support consumer goods trade-in funding.
The 2026 subsidy policy features optimizations in scope, standards, and implementation mechanisms compared to the 2025 home appliance trade-in subsidy policy, primarily in three aspects: 1) Regarding the scope of support, the 2026 policy focuses on six product categories—refrigerators, washing machines, televisions, air conditioners, computers, and water heaters—reducing the supported range by six categories compared to the 2025 policy, which included household stoves, range hoods, microwave ovens, water purifiers, dishwashers, and rice cookers. 2) Regarding subsidy standards, the 2026 policy adjusts the subsidy ratio for Grade 1 energy or water efficiency products from 20% to 15% of the product price and discontinues subsidies for products meeting Grade 2 standards. Each consumer can receive a subsidy for one item per category (adjusted from three items for air conditioners), with the single-item subsidy cap reduced from 2,000 yuan to 1,500 yuan. Furthermore, the first batch of consumer goods trade-in funds for 2026 is 62.5 billion yuan (compared to 81 billion yuan for the first batch of 2025 funds), representing a year-on-year decrease of 23%. The total subsidy funds for 2026 are expected to decrease. 3) In terms of the implementation mechanism, the 2026 policy specifies the implementation of uniform subsidy standards nationwide; establishes a pre-allocation system for subsidy funds to alleviate corporate funding pressure; fully leverages the advantages of different sales channels, supporting offline physical retail; and enhances consumption convenience in rural areas by increasing offline business entities and guiding online channels to focus more on these areas.
The 2025 trade-in policy effectively stimulated home appliance consumption. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to November 2025, the retail sales value of household appliances and audio-visual equipment units above the designated size nationwide increased by 14.8% year-on-year. Citing information from the Ministry of Commerce, CCTV News reported that over 128.44 million home appliances were traded in nationwide from January to November, with an estimated cumulative subsidy amount of approximately 82.7 billion yuan, driving about 439.5 billion yuan in home appliance consumption. The home appliance trade-in subsidy policy facilitated the release of replacement demand, effectively boosting the sentiment of home appliance consumption.
With the landing of the 2026 subsidy policy and optimized details, the industry is expected to move towards healthy development. Due to factors such as demand being pulled forward, the phase-out of national subsidies, and a high base, domestic home appliance consumption has faced pressure since October 2025. The introduction of the 2026 national subsidy policy, along with the allocation of the first 62.5 billion yuan in trade-in funds to local governments, is expected to improve the sentiment for domestic appliance sales. The 2026 subsidy policy focuses on categories like white goods and color TVs, directs subsidy funds primarily towards high-efficiency products, and emphasizes support for offline physical retail. The new policy is anticipated to drive the home appliance industry towards upgrades in premium, intelligent, and green directions, promoting product structure optimization. Major appliance enterprises with advantages in R&D, channels, and branding will benefit more from the subsidy policy.
Three key investment themes are recommended: 1) Recommend leading white goods companies with high operational quality and high dividend yields. Leading white goods companies possess well-established brand portfolios and channel layouts, with the benefits of digital reforms continuously materializing, suggesting resilient growth potential. Simultaneously, these leading white goods companies generally have strong cash flow positions and maintain high dividend yields over the long term. It is advised to focus on Midea Group (000333.SZ), Haier Smart Home (600690.SH), Gree Electric Appliances (000651.SZ), Hisense Home Appliances (000921.SZ), and Changhong Meiling (000521.SZ). 2) Place importance on overseas leaders with outstanding global capabilities. Tariff risks are prompting appliance companies to accelerate changes in their overseas expansion models, vigorously promoting global production layout, brand exports, and localization strategies. Emerging markets like Middle East-Africa and Latin America, with their large populations and low appliance penetration rates, are expected to continue contributing incremental revenue for appliance exporters. It is advised to focus on Hisense Vision (600060.SH), TCL ELECTRONICS (01070), TCL Smart Home (002668.SZ), and Xinbao Electrical Appliances (002705.SZ). 3) Pay attention to technology appliance companies that are continuously expanding into new business areas. Technology is empowering upgrades in appliance products, with AI large models and robotics applications expected to enhance user experience and drive demand expansion into new circles. It is advised to focus on Ninebot (689009.SH), Ecovacs Robotics (603486.SH), Roborock (688169.SH), and SHIYuan股份 (002841.SZ).
Risk warnings include policy implementation effects falling short of expectations, significant increases in raw material prices, risks associated with changes in real estate policies, and substantial appreciation of the Renminbi.
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