Is Amazon Stock A Buy Or Sell During The Dip?

seekingalpha2022-05-24

SummaryShares of Amazon have been under pressure amid a weaker growth outlook and broader macro concerns.AMZN was a great short at the highs in 2021 but is now too late to sell and looks like a more ...

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Comments

EC031
2022-05-25
EC031
Thank you for sharing!
TSY123
2022-05-25
TSY123
Okay
PearlynCSY
2022-05-25
PearlynCSY
Tech rout is just a ‘shake-out’: Top CEOs predict what’s next for markets. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index closed Monday’s trading down more than 26% year-to-date, and the Dow Jones U.S. tech sector has also shed more than 26%. The sudden downturn for high-growth tech stocks – widely seen as overvalued at the market peak in late 2021 – has led some commentators to voice concerns about a tech-driven crash akin to that of the “dotcom bubble” bursting in 1999/2000. While some analysts have suggested that sentiment towards the tech sector is at its worst point since the dotcom bubble, as rising rates force companies to become profitable faster, they have also highlighted that long-term opportunities still exist for investors.
Aloynty
2022-05-25
Aloynty
Guessing a dip with the current market sentiments
KFChen
2022-05-25
KFChen
Buy
LongZR
2022-05-25
LongZR
Nice

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(NASDAQ:AMZN) has faced a reckoning this year with shares down more than 45% from its 2021 high. The e-commerce and cloud computing giant went from being an early pandemic boom winner to now dealing with inflationary cost pressures anda slowing growth outlook. In many ways, the headwinds facing Amazon reflect the broader market which remains highly volatile with deep uncertainties. That being said, there is always room for some optimism.The stock has dropped nearly 25% just over the past month since its last quarterly report while we make the case that the move has gone too far too fast. The attraction of AMZN is its global scale, leadership position, and positive long-term outlook which remain intact. We're turning bullish on the stock ahead of the upcoming June 6th 20-for-1 stock split that could work as an upside catalyst. We see an opportunity in picking up this beaten-down name that is well-positioned to outperform through the second half of the year.Why Did Amazon Stock Fall?Shares of AMZN have been trending lower through a combination of weaker than expected Q1 trends, softer guidance, and concerns over the company's operating environment going forward. Amazon as the world's largest retailer, commanding upwards of 60% of total U.S. e-commerce sales is closely connected to trends in the economy. There is recognition now that the record growth rates in 2020 and into 2021 during the pandemic were simply not sustainable. Beyond margins getting squeezed, a sense that consumer spending is fragile has also hit sentiment.Amazon reported its Q1 earnings on April 28th with a negative EPS of -$7.56 which was $15.78 below expectations. The context here was a $7.6 billion loss from the company's equity investment in Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN) which saw its stock price decline by more than 50% during the quarter. This ended up reversing part of a $12 billion gain recognized in Q4 in conjunction with RIVN's IPO last year.Nevertheless, the total operating income at $3.7 billion came in at the low end of the company's previous midpoint guidance of around $4.5 billion highlighting the weaker core financial trends. On a trailing twelve months basis, a net income of $21.45 billion is down 20% from last year.Total revenue of $116 billion climbed just 7.3% year over year, compared to 9% in Q4, and 44% in Q1 last year which considers what was a tough comparison period when Amazon benefited from the stimulus boost towards consumer spending.source: company IRThe North America retail segment that includes both the e-commerce marketplace along with consumer digital services like \"Prime\" posted 8% y/y revenue growth while the -$1.8 billion operating loss reversed a profit of $3.5 billion in the period last year. Here management explains that higher costs in everything from fulfillment expenses to employee wages have added up and are expected to continue through the next few quarters.The trends were similar in the international segment with revenues flat on an FX adjusted basis and a widening operating loss. The one strong point remained Amazon Web Services (AWS) with revenues climbing 37% y/y and 57% higher operating income to $6.5 billion.In terms of guidance, Amazon expects Q2 net sales between $116 billion and $120 billion, representing 3% to 7% growth over Q2 2021. Notably, this was well below the standing consensus at the time for Q2 sales closer to $125 billion and was a large part of why the stock sold off on the Q1 earnings report. Management expects operating income between a loss of $1.0 billion and a gain of $3.0 billion, which compares to $7.7 billion in the period last year.Will Amazon Stock Go Back Up?With AMZN currently trading around $2,100, keep in mind that the stock first crossed the $2,000 mark back in 2018. This means shares have gone nowhere over the last several years and have also underperformed the broader market. Still, a lot has changed for both the company and the global economy even compared to the pre-pandemic environment. Long-term investors can take solace that even with the mixed financial trends this year, Amazon is still profitable and generating growth on a 2-year stacked basis.For reference, the total revenue of $477 billion over the past year is 70% higher than the $280 billion the company generated in 2019. Just with AWS, the operating income this last quarter is more than double from Q1 2020. The point here is to say that while Amazon is clearly in a rough patch, fundamentals are fine with the company making important progress in expanding its global footprint with significant investments in infrastructure in recent years.According to consensus estimates, the forecast is for annual revenue growth to average 14% through 2026, including a 12% increase this year. With EPS, the 2022 forecast at $16.63 is down by nearly three quarters compared to 2021. Favorably, the expectation is that earnings accelerate higher by 2023 to a record $54.63 and nearly triple to $154.48 by 2026.In our view, these estimates are reasonable because several positive factors can balance near-term headwinds. There are several levers management can pull to control costs and support earnings even this year. Few companies of any size have this type of growth outlook and operating leverage.Seeking AlphaAs it relates to valuation, the silver lining of the recent selloff is that AMZN is trading at a historically low growth premium. Recognizing that 2022 is a transitional year as it deals with supply chain disruptions and reorganizes its earnings strategy, the key is to focus on next year's estimates. AMZN is trading at a 1-year forward P/E ratio of 39x. This compares to a 5-year average for the multiple above 80x. Similarly, based on a consensus EBITDA estimate of $75 billion, the 14.4x EV to forward EBITDA multiple is compelling. We argue that AMZN at 2x sales is simply undervalued.source: YChartsAMZN Stock Price ForecastWe can talk about consensus estimates all day and play around with earnings multiples. The reality is that the next move in AMZN is going to depend on both how the economy evolves and the market trading action over the next few months. In this case, we believe Amazon should outperform in percentage terms, leveraged to the upside while also benefiting from a measure of quality with lower volatility on any further downside.On one hand, the market environment has been terrible. If the selloff started late last year based on a concern of slowing growth and that cost pressures would hit margins, the latest narrative is the emerging possibility of a deeper recession with a drop in consumer spending. This of course would be bearish for Amazon and opens the door for a leg lower.The message we have today is that such pessimism is far from certain. In our view, Amazon was a \"great short\" idea back in Q4 last year when the stock was trading above $3,700. In fact, we last covered the stock with an article in the Q1 report expressing a bearish outlook but now see it as both too late to sell and a more compelling long.Seeking AlphaA couple of things need to happen for AMZN and the broader market to really regain positive momentum. First, it will be important to see signs that inflation has peaked and is on a path to trend lower. The April CPI data came in a bit hotter than expected, but for the next few months, the base effect of tough 2021 comps when consumer prices were already rising will help improve the headline figures. This may provide the Fed with some room to adjust its rate-hiking trajectory into a less aggressive path that can support market sentiment towards risk assets.For Amazon, it will also be important that consumer spending and retail figures remain stable. Encouraging comments are coming out of the World Economic Forum currently being held in Davos, Switzerland. During a recent interview, Bank of America (BAC) CEO Brian Moynihan explained data shows consumers on average are holding higher cash balances than before the pandemic. JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon echoed a similar statement. The implication here is that even as inflation is driving up costs, consumers as a group in the U.S. still have room to mitigate the impact of inflation and higher rates.With Amazon, we believe there is a certain level of resiliency to its business that is underappreciated. It's positive that a growing portion of the business is based on subscriptions and recurring revenues. This includes not only AWS which has carried firm-wide financials but also services like Prime and digital content. The company has made efforts to further diversify including with growth in the advertising business which is still in the early stages. Investors can look forward to all these pieces coming together over the next few years which can generate sharply higher margins.We mentioned the upcoming stock split. Shareholders on record as of June 3rd will receive 19 additional shares on June 6th for each shared owned. At the current price of $2,100, the post-split share price would be ~$105. While this corporate action does not change the market value of Amazon which will still be around $1 trillion, the move can work to expand the shareholder base to a new group of investors that prefer to avoid fractional shares. There is also a psychological component with a sense of re-anchoring the stock's performance. The split could mark a pivot point for the stock with a new wave of momentum with the round number of \"$100\" acting as support.Is AMZN Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?We believe there is a good chance AMZN ends up trading higher over the next several months. We rate AMZN as a buy with a price target for the year ahead at $2,730 representing a 50x P/E multiple on the current 2023 consensus EPS. Ultimately, we see room for the company to outperform what is now a low bar of expectations. The stock has been punished enough that valuation looks attractive for what is still one of the strongest companies in the world.Today or this week might not be \"the bottom\", but the current level looks like a good spot to either start a new position or average down. The main risk would be a deeper deterioration of the macro outlook forcing further revisions lower to growth and earnings estimates. Of course, there are always risks but it's the bears and short sellers that need to start sweating.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9026774030,"gmtCreate":1653438779320,"gmtModify":1676535282045,"author":{"id":"3576225476894398","authorId":"3576225476894398","name":"EC031","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/da2364c428662b5d13c7684f6c4c6200","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3576225476894398","idStr":"3576225476894398"},"htmlText":"Thank you for sharing!","listText":"Thank you for sharing!","text":"Thank you for sharing!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9026774030","repostId":1131774677,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9026744834,"gmtCreate":1653438229728,"gmtModify":1676535281775,"author":{"id":"3583665662213187","authorId":"3583665662213187","name":"TSY123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af38fbc4f07efb7ae9b5ebd03aa4b79b","vip":1,"crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3583665662213187","idStr":"3583665662213187"},"htmlText":"Okay&nbsp;","listText":"Okay&nbsp;","text":"Okay","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9026744834","repostId":1131774677,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9026740747,"gmtCreate":1653437767789,"gmtModify":1676535281599,"author":{"id":"4092458811577680","authorId":"4092458811577680","name":"PearlynCSY","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3e9fe7af061efe80a756d23de62e7b3","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"4092458811577680","idStr":"4092458811577680"},"htmlText":"Tech rout is just a ‘shake-out’: Top CEOs predict what’s next for markets. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index closed Monday’s trading down more than 26% year-to-date, and the Dow Jones U.S. tech sector has also shed more than 26%. The sudden downturn for high-growth tech stocks – widely seen as overvalued at the market peak in late 2021 – has led some commentators to voice concerns about a tech-driven crash akin to that of the “dotcom bubble” bursting in 1999/2000. While some analysts have suggested that sentiment towards the tech sector is at its worst point since the dotcom bubble, as rising rates force companies to become profitable faster, they have also highlighted that long-term opportunities still exist for investors.","listText":"Tech rout is just a ‘shake-out’: Top CEOs predict what’s next for markets. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index closed Monday’s trading down more than 26% year-to-date, and the Dow Jones U.S. tech sector has also shed more than 26%. The sudden downturn for high-growth tech stocks – widely seen as overvalued at the market peak in late 2021 – has led some commentators to voice concerns about a tech-driven crash akin to that of the “dotcom bubble” bursting in 1999/2000. While some analysts have suggested that sentiment towards the tech sector is at its worst point since the dotcom bubble, as rising rates force companies to become profitable faster, they have also highlighted that long-term opportunities still exist for investors.","text":"Tech rout is just a ‘shake-out’: Top CEOs predict what’s next for markets. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index closed Monday’s trading down more than 26% year-to-date, and the Dow Jones U.S. tech sector has also shed more than 26%. The sudden downturn for high-growth tech stocks – widely seen as overvalued at the market peak in late 2021 – has led some commentators to voice concerns about a tech-driven crash akin to that of the “dotcom bubble” bursting in 1999/2000. While some analysts have suggested that sentiment towards the tech sector is at its worst point since the dotcom bubble, as rising rates force companies to become profitable faster, they have also highlighted that long-term opportunities still exist for investors.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":15,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9026740747","repostId":1131774677,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9026705966,"gmtCreate":1653434023255,"gmtModify":1676535279404,"author":{"id":"3575873871496945","authorId":"3575873871496945","name":"Aloynty","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8bc156c78f1b8fc5d20a5b2da3a5b6aa","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3575873871496945","idStr":"3575873871496945"},"htmlText":"Guessing a dip with&nbsp;the current market sentiments&nbsp;","listText":"Guessing a dip with&nbsp;the current market sentiments&nbsp;","text":"Guessing a dip with the current market sentiments","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9026705966","repostId":1131774677,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9026471750,"gmtCreate":1653433079770,"gmtModify":1676535279107,"author":{"id":"3576990193651421","authorId":"3576990193651421","name":"KFChen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6830fa3fe8a82d29953fbb2e6153801e","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3576990193651421","idStr":"3576990193651421"},"htmlText":"Buy","listText":"Buy","text":"Buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9026471750","repostId":1131774677,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9026444771,"gmtCreate":1653432742193,"gmtModify":1676535278977,"author":{"id":"3572305441240915","authorId":"3572305441240915","name":"LongZR","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80b6c7bb6866455f69d500fddb520c7e","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c5ceab71416b120bab4604c0754b52a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3572305441240915","idStr":"3572305441240915"},"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9026444771","repostId":1131774677,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":115,"commentSize":11,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.1","shortVersion":"4.29.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1131774677"}