UBS has released a research report stating that ASMPT (00522) delivered strong third-quarter order performance, reaching US$1.1 billion, up 25% quarter-on-quarter and 138% year-on-year, surpassing previous guidance of high single-digit sequential growth, with both SEMI and SMT businesses recording record orders; the bank reiterates its "Buy" rating and maintains a target price of HK$200.
The record-high orders were driven by robust artificial intelligence demand for thermocompression bonding (TCB), surface mount technology (SMT), and photonics equipment, along with a one-off bulk order in SMT. The third-quarter book-to-bill ratio reached 1.69, the strongest level since the first quarter of 2021.
Third-quarter gross margin came in at 42.1%, better than market concerns, benefiting from improved scale as well as a better SMT and SEMI product mix. The company guides fourth-quarter sales to grow 4.6% quarter-on-quarter at the midpoint, in line with the bank's expectations, driven by double-digit growth in SMT, while SEMI is expected to remain flat due to longer delivery lead times for advanced packaging products; fourth-quarter orders are expected to be slightly lower than the third quarter as some orders were recognized earlier.
The bank expects logic chips to become a more important driver of the TCB addressable market in 2027 to 2028, and photonics business sales growth is expected to accelerate further in the second half and continue into 2027. The bank has raised its 2027 earnings per share forecast by 4% to HK$7.71.
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