This year, the global commodities market has been marked by two key trends: record-breaking gold price rallies and persistently weak crude oil prices. Goldman Sachs Group predicts both trends will continue into 2026.
Analysts including Daan Struyven and Samantha Dart stated in a December 18 commodities outlook report that gold prices are expected to reach new highs next year, while oil prices will face pressure due to oversupply. The report projects a baseline scenario where gold could rise to $4,900 per ounce, with upside risks.
While the broader commodities market is set for modest gains this year, the performance gap between key raw materials remains stark. Gold prices have surged on central bank purchases, expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, and ETF inflows, whereas oil prices have declined amid oversupply concerns.
The analysts noted that lower U.S. interest rates have prompted ETF investors to "compete with central banks for limited gold reserves." They added, "We expect two key drivers—structural central bank demand and cyclical support from Fed easing—to further lift gold prices."
In contrast, oil faces downward risks. "Barring major supply disruptions or OPEC+ cuts, oil prices may need to decline in 2026 to rebalance the market," they wrote, forecasting accelerated OECD inventory builds due to oversupply.
Goldman Sachs projects 2026 Brent crude at an average of $56 per barrel and WTI at $52. Additionally, the bank predicts LNG will see its "largest-ever supply wave" with lower prices, copper outperforming aluminum, and weaker iron ore prices.
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