Spot Gold:
On July 1st, the market focus is on the upcoming US ADP employment data scheduled for Wednesday and the US Non-Farm Payrolls data for June on Thursday. These releases are expected to provide further clues regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance. Beyond economic data, attention is also on the European Central Bank's annual forum taking place in Sintra, Portugal. A key highlight of this forum will be the first public speech by the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, who has only given a media interview earlier this month. The market will scrutinize Warsh's remarks to gauge whether recent US economic data is robust enough to support a more hawkish Fed policy tilt.
Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, yesterday's daily candlestick formed a long-legged doji, indicating solid buying support at lower levels but equally strong selling pressure at higher levels. The overall price action remains within a wide consolidation range, with no clear breakout signal yet. Intraday, the market is expected to continue its choppy rhythm, likely testing support on a pullback before attempting a rebound. Key resistance levels: The primary zone of contention is between $4000 and $4030 (yesterday's European session's high-volume area). A decisive break above could lead to a test of the stronger resistance band between $4060 and $4080. Key support levels: The primary defensive line is at the $3960 level. The strong support band has shifted lower to the $3935-$3918 region. A breach of this zone under extreme conditions would raise the risk of a further decline towards $3900. For the evening session, focus on the resistance around $4005/$4030 and support around $3950/$3917.
Evening Trading Strategy for Gold
Personal recommendation: Consider long positions on a pullback to $3920/$3935, and consider short positions on a rebound to $4005/$4030. Set a stop-loss of 10 points for each, targeting 20 to 50 points.
Comments