Goldman Sachs has lifted its oil price projections for late 2026 and 2027 by USD 5 per barrel, citing a new assumption that Middle East shipping disruptions will persist through next year. The bank now sees Brent crude at USD 85 per barrel and US crude at USD 80 per barrel by December 2026, with forecasts for 2027 set at USD 80 and USD 75 per barrel, respectively.
The upward revision remains modest, as OECD commercial onshore inventories have not declined significantly since the outbreak of the conflict, pointing to a supply gap smaller than previously estimated. Analysts note that even with sustained shipping blockages, Middle East supply can adapt through a growing "dark fleet" of covertly transported crude, alongside several new pipeline projects slated to come online by the end of 2027.
Risks remain clearly tilted to the upside, particularly in the near term, according to the report. Iran has warned of retaliatory action should the US strike its assets again, stating that energy infrastructure across the Gulf region, including American oil and gas interests, remains vulnerable. Since the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran on 28 February, triggering the conflict, Tehran has tightened restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global oil and gas supplies.
The bank's revised forecasts reflect a more prolonged disruption scenario, though the limited inventory drawdown tempers the scale of the price increase. The combination of pipeline expansions and the expanded dark fleet is expected to partially offset the impact of the strait's constrained traffic.
Comments