Good morning. Let's begin with the latest updates.
Israel has continued its airstrikes on Lebanon. According to reports from Lebanese sources on June 4th, the Israeli military carried out a series of airstrikes on southern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley in the east, resulting in at least 9 deaths and dozens of injuries. The Israeli military announced that one soldier was killed in southern Lebanon by an attack from Hezbollah.
The most severe casualties from the day's airstrikes reportedly occurred in the town of Sohmor in the Bekaa Valley, causing 5 deaths and 4 injuries. The towns of Aabbassiyeh and Maaroub in southern Lebanon were also targeted, resulting in a combined 4 deaths and 2 injuries.
Israeli fighter jets and drones also launched strikes on several other locations in southern Lebanon, causing multiple injuries and damage to some civilian infrastructure.
Hezbollah has rejected a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. On June 4th, Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem issued a statement rejecting a joint declaration by the US, Israel, and the Lebanese government regarding a ceasefire. He refused to comply with the declaration's demand for Hezbollah fighters to withdraw from southern Lebanon, emphasizing that Israel must completely withdraw from Lebanese territory.
In the statement, Qassem asserted that the joint declaration, under the guise of a "false ceasefire," advances a security agenda that is "essentially surrender, defeat, and achieving the enemy's goals." He stated that Hezbollah's sole concern is "ending Israel's comprehensive aggression, achieving a ceasefire, and the withdrawal of Israeli forces."
Qassem stressed that any ceasefire must be comprehensive, that southern Lebanon is inseparable from the rest of the country, and that Israel cannot be allowed freedom to kill within Lebanon. He declared that resistance will not stop as long as occupation exists.
Former US President Donald Trump stated that he does not rule out a meeting with Iran's Supreme Leader if the US and Iran eventually reach an agreement. He reiterated that the US will never allow Iran to possess nuclear weapons, claiming that previous US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities had "completely destroyed" them.
Trump also mentioned that the US had considered sending troops into Iran to remove enriched uranium from nuclear sites but ultimately abandoned the plan to avoid a prolonged ground operation and potential casualties. He described such an operation as high-risk, requiring one to two weeks and significant heavy equipment and airlift capabilities.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy sent an open letter to Russian President Vladimir Putin, proposing a direct meeting between the two leaders to help end the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Simultaneously, Ukraine believes that relevant parties from Europe, the US, and elsewhere should also participate in the peace talks.
Furthermore, Zelenskyy expressed Ukraine's willingness to implement a comprehensive ceasefire during negotiations and to conduct prisoner exchanges with Russia based on an "all for all" principle.
Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that Russia is fully prepared and willing to reach an agreement with Ukraine through peaceful means, based on the foundation of the Anchorage meeting.
Putin indicated that Russia is ready to accept the compromise plan reached during the meeting between Russian and US leaders in Anchorage, Alaska, in August of last year, but Ukraine must agree to these terms. He suggested that if Ukraine agrees to make compromises according to the Russia-US Anchorage agreement, the conflict could end quickly.
International oil prices fell sharply. On the evening of June 4th, international oil prices experienced a significant drop, with WTI crude oil futures at one point falling over 4% and Brent crude oil futures dropping nearly 4%. By the morning close, WTI crude oil futures were down 3.10% at $93.04 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures were down 2.84% at $95.03 per barrel.
Reports indicate that OPEC+ representatives stated the alliance plans to further increase production quotas in three stages by September to complete the production restoration process, with the final supply restrictions scheduled to be lifted next year.
Analysts point out that geopolitical tensions and global central bank monetary policies remain key variables influencing precious metals prices.
Recently, precious metals prices have been under pressure, with silver prices declining more significantly than gold.
A precious metals analyst noted that the price decline is mainly influenced by three factors. First, expectations for tighter overseas monetary policy have increased. Persistent US inflation data exceeding expectations, coupled with hawkish signals from some Federal Reserve officials, has heightened market concerns about potential further monetary policy tightening by central banks abroad. This has pushed up US real bond yields and the US dollar index, negatively impacting precious metals prices. Second, global financial market risk aversion has cooled. The temporary easing of Middle East geopolitical conflicts has led to a rapid decline in the risk premium for precious metals. Finally, there has been a shift in capital risk appetite. A recovery in global risk sentiment has led to continuous capital flows into equity markets, while overall demand for commodity allocations has contracted. Among these, silver prices have fallen more significantly than gold due to their previous higher gains and greater volatility.
Another chief precious metals analyst also believes that rising expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike, along with a stronger US dollar and higher US Treasury yields, are the core factors suppressing precious metals prices recently.
The analyst noted that while both the US and Iran show clear intentions to halt hostilities, they have not reached agreement on key issues like control of the Strait of Hormuz and the nuclear deal. Continued small-scale military friction keeps oil prices relatively high, further exacerbating US inflation concerns. With the current US labor market stable and economic conditions favorable, expectations for Fed rate hikes continue to strengthen, putting short-term pressure on precious metals prices.
Looking ahead, the interviewed analysts agree that geopolitical tensions and global central bank monetary policies will remain key variables influencing precious metals prices.
In the short term, one analyst suggested gold and silver prices may maintain a weak, volatile pattern. If Middle East conflicts escalate again, oil prices could see a sharp, temporary rise, reviving the seesaw effect with precious metals prices. If expectations for Fed rate hikes increase further, it will limit the upside for gold and silver prices. Conversely, if US economic data weakens, gold and silver prices may rebound.
Another analyst believes the possibility of a significant re-escalation in US-Iran conflict is limited. Currently, neither US CPI nor PCE has exceeded 4%, and the current federal funds rate level still has a suppressing effect on inflation, so there is relatively limited room for further strengthening of Fed rate hike expectations.
From a medium to long-term perspective, one analyst believes the underlying support for precious metals prices remains solid. The overall strategic direction of global central banks purchasing gold throughout the year has not changed, providing ongoing support for gold prices. The other analyst also mentioned that once short-term negative factors are gradually digested and the Middle East situation becomes clearer, precious metals are expected to stage another "bull market" performance.
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