Recently, due to a combination of factors including rising primary energy prices, rapid shifts in flood conditions, periodic reductions in new energy output, and growing electricity demand, spot power prices in the southern region experienced a phased upward movement.
The price signal effectively incentivized generators to increase output, and overall power supply and demand across the grid remained broadly balanced.
Guangdong, relying on retail contracts and the guaranteed retail electricity mechanism as a backstop, kept end-user electricity prices stable. Although some electricity retail companies incurred losses, this will not disrupt the broader goal of maintaining supply and price stability.
In September, the peak load across the five southern provinces and regions reached 273 million kilowatts, up 15.33% year-on-year, with total全社会 electricity consumption of 173.73 billion kilowatt-hours. Guangdong's electricity usage remained at a high level, with the system peak load for the month reaching 167 million kilowatts and consumption of 98.11 billion kilowatt-hours.
Government-enterprise coordination strengthened energy supply assurance, and regional thermal coal inventories and hydropower reserves remained at reasonable levels. Guangdong fully leveraged the "anchor" role of medium- and long-term transactions, with medium- and long-term electricity accounting for nearly 90% of generation-side volume in September. The average spot market price was 0.495 yuan per kilowatt-hour, a 9.2% premium over the coal-fired benchmark price, which spurred power plants to increase output by 6.06 billion kilowatt-hours.
Based on comprehensive assessment, power supply and demand in the southern region will be generally balanced this winter and next spring, and under normal operating conditions, Guangdong's electricity supply and demand can basically be met in the fourth quarter.
Regarding the market's concern over losses at electricity retail companies, the root cause lies in overly aggressive business strategies by market participants, which represents individual operational risk stemming from trading misjudgments. Electricity retail companies do not bear responsibility for power supply. Previously, nearly 90% of retail contracts locked in fixed low prices, and subsequent rises in energy prices led to a wholesale-retail price inversion.
From January to September 2026, a total of 317 electricity retail companies in Guangdong reported losses, accounting for more than 60% of the total, with combined losses of 920 million yuan. The industry is expected to post a slight loss for the full year, but after factoring in 2025 earnings, the overall profit stands at 8.858 billion yuan.
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