Lifu Harmonic has recently submitted its application for a listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, signaling a shift in the valuation logic of the robotics industrial chain.
Over the past two years, the market's focus on humanoid robots has been primarily on the complete system manufacturers: which one can walk, which can dance, which can enter factories, and which can secure orders from major companies.
However, as we move into 2026, capital is beginning to flow upstream.
While mass production of complete systems is still under validation, core components have already started appearing on income statements.
The harmonic reducer is one of the most typical segments in this shift.
The signals from the prospectus are direct: Lifu Harmonic's revenue reached 261 million yuan in 2025, a significant year-on-year increase; the company sold over 870,000 harmonic reducers for the full year, with cumulative sales surpassing 1 million units; sales in the first four months of 2026 continued to double year-on-year.
Lifu Harmonic is not a company merely telling a story based on the robotics concept; it has already entered a stage of revenue scaling.
However, the other side must also be clearly seen: the company is still reporting consecutive losses, and its gross margin remains affected by price competition and capacity investment.
Key Investment Considerations
The first layer of appeal for Lifu Harmonic is that it is no longer just a single-product harmonic reducer company.
Corporate records show the company was founded in 2013 and has long been focused on the precision transmission field, with its product line extending from harmonic reducers to joint modules, robotic arms, and automated workstations.
This evolution is crucial. Single-component companies typically face a limited valuation ceiling, easily constrained by price, capacity, and customer cycles.
However, if a company can transition from reducers to joint modules and further into motion system solutions, its valuation anchor shifts from "component supplier" to "robotic motion system platform."
The company's industrial position is also sufficiently clear.
Harmonic reducers are known as the core components of robotic joints, essential for both industrial robots and, even more so, humanoid robots.
A single humanoid robot typically requires between a dozen and several dozen harmonic reducers.
Once complete system manufacturers enter mass production, upstream reducer manufacturers are often the first to experience the elasticity of orders.
This is also the most noteworthy aspect of Lifu Harmonic's listing application: while the commercialization of humanoid robots may not have fully erupted, upstream core components have already begun to show validation through sales and revenue.
Competitive Landscape
For domestic comparisons, the most direct peer is Leaderdrive.
Leaderdrive has long specialized in harmonic reducers, possessing stronger capital, brand, and customer foundations.
Lifu Harmonic's differentiation lies in not staying solely with standardized harmonic reducers but moving earlier into joint modules and integrated solutions.
The rapid scaling of revenue from joint modules and robotic arms in 2025 indicates the company's attempt to use higher value-added products to offset the downward price pressure on harmonic reducers.
The overseas benchmark is Japan's Harmonic Drive Systems Inc.
Japanese manufacturers still hold a leading advantage in high-end markets and precision applications, particularly in aerospace, precision instruments, and high-end industrial scenarios.
Lifu Harmonic's opportunity lies in import substitution and cost-effectiveness: if it can provide precision, lifespan, and stability close to the international first tier at lower prices, it has the chance to accelerate penetration in industrial robots, humanoid robots, and collaborative robot scenarios.
Import substitution is not just a slogan.
High-end customer validation cycles are long, and system manufacturers are very cautious about introducing new suppliers into their supply chains.
Lifu Harmonic has already proven it can deliver products, but to prove it can become a global-level precision transmission company, it requires more validation from top overseas customers, long-term orders, and high-end application scenarios.
Financial Performance Analysis
There is a clear contradiction in Lifu Harmonic's fundamentals: revenue growth is impressive, but the profit statement is not yet attractive.
From 2023 to 2025, the company's revenue increased from approximately 94.5 million yuan to 108 million yuan, and then to 261 million yuan.
The year 2025 saw growth of over 100% year-on-year, indicating very clear demand expansion.
Harmonic reducers remain the foundation, contributing about 167 million yuan in revenue in 2025; joint modules and robotic arms are beginning to form a second growth curve, with revenue scaling rapidly.
The company is no longer in a "waiting for the wind" state but has started to benefit from order dividends on the eve of robot mass production.
A stronger signal comes from the sales side.
For the full year 2025, the company sold over 870,000 harmonic reducers, with cumulative sales exceeding 1 million units.
In the first four months of 2026, sales increased from 62,500 units in the same period last year to 133,900 units, a year-on-year increase of 114.2%.
For upstream component companies, sales volume is more important than stories.
Only when sales volume increases can capacity utilization, economies of scale, and customer stickiness follow.
However, from 2023 to 2025, the company reported annual losses of approximately 169 million yuan, 169 million yuan, and 171 million yuan, respectively.
Although the loss ratio has narrowed significantly with revenue growth, the absolute scale of losses persists.
The company needs to clarify whether the losses are due to phased capacity expansion and R&D investment or if the business model itself is inherently difficult to make profitable.
Based on disclosures in the prospectus, losses are mainly related to capacity construction, equipment depreciation, R&D investment, and market expansion.
This logic is acceptable, but the capital market will not just listen to explanations.
Ultimately, it depends on whether gross margin and expense ratios can improve.
Data shows the company's gross margin decreased from 29.5% in 2023 to 24.1% in 2024, rebounding to 25.6% in 2025.
This change is due to both price competition and shifts in product mix.
The decline in the average selling price of harmonic reducers reflects an industry that has entered a stage of competing for market share; the increase in the average price of joint modules indicates the company is shifting towards higher value-added products.
If the company only relies on price reductions to sell more reducers, revenue can grow, but profit elasticity is limited; if the proportion of joint modules and integrated motion systems continues to increase, gross margin will have room to rise again.
The post-listing valuation of this company will depend on three metrics: whether the average selling price of harmonic reducers continues to decline, whether the revenue share of joint modules can increase, and whether increased capacity utilization can dilute depreciation and manufacturing expenses.
For Lifu Harmonic to achieve a higher valuation, it needs to prove it can move from revenue scaling to narrowing losses, and then towards breakeven.
Strategic Narratives and Market Outlook
Lifu Harmonic's push for a Hong Kong listing is underpinned by three capital storylines.
The first is import substitution.
China's robotics industrial chain has long relied on high-end Japanese harmonic reducers.
With the accelerated development of domestic industrial robots, humanoid robots, and collaborative robots, the localization of core components is a certain direction.
As the second-ranked domestic harmonic reducer manufacturer by shipment volume, Lifu Harmonic already holds a certain advantageous position.
Especially in the mass production and supply of harmonic reducers for humanoid robots, the company is among the few domestic players that have entered the industrialization stage.
The valuation anchor for this story is "autonomous and controllable high-end manufacturing."
The second storyline revolves around humanoid robot core components.
Complete system manufacturers currently attract high attention, but the pace of their commercialization remains uncertain.
In contrast, upstream core components are more likely to enter financial statements first.
As long as downstream system manufacturers continue with sample delivery, trial production, and small-scale mass production, the order elasticity for harmonic reducers will be reflected first.
The greatest potential of this storyline comes from humanoid robots.
If humanoid robots reach an output level of millions of units in the future, the market space for harmonic reducers will be reopened.
However, this also represents the greatest uncertainty: the timing of downstream mass production, changes in technical routes, the number of reducers per unit, and the speed of price declines will all affect actual revenue realization.
The third storyline is platformization and international expansion.
Lifu Harmonic is not content with just making reducers but is extending into joint modules, robotic arms, and automated workstations.
If this direction succeeds, the company's customer stickiness will strengthen, per-customer value will increase, and its valuation will shift from a component company to a motion control solutions company.
A Hong Kong listing can help the company connect with international capital and overseas customers.
Japanese products are priced higher in European, American, and Japanese markets; if domestic suppliers can pass validation, their cost-performance advantage will be very clear.
However, international expansion is not simply about lowering prices.
High-end customers value reliability, lifespan, delivery stability, after-sales response, and long-term quality records.
For Lifu Harmonic to enter mainstream overseas robotics supply chains, time and validation are required.
The Hong Kong market may grant a certain premium for scarce sectors, but it is also very pragmatic.
Once listed, if revenue growth slows, gross margin faces pressure, and losses do not narrow for an extended period, the market will quickly de-rate the valuation.
Humanoid robots have not yet entered factories on a large scale, but harmonic reducers have already entered financial statements.
Lifu Harmonic's listing application truly reveals that the robotics industrial chain is beginning to transition from storytelling to the accounting phase.
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