Domestic refined oil product prices are expected to see a minor increase as a new adjustment window for retail price ceilings opens at 24:00 on Tuesday, May 21st, according to forecasts from multiple industry institutions.
The adjustment mechanism for domestic refined oil prices is primarily based on the rate of change calculated by comparing the weighted average price of international crude oil over the most recent 10 working days with that of the previous cycle. If the corresponding price adjustment amount per ton is less than 50 yuan, the prices of gasoline and diesel will remain unchanged, with the unadjusted amount carried over to the next pricing cycle.
During the current pricing cycle, the instability of US-Iran relations re-emerged, causing oil prices to rise significantly amid market concerns. Overall, the average crude oil price for this period has increased compared to the previous cycle. Consequently, the domestic reference crude oil change rate has shifted from negative to positive, leading to an expectation of a minor increase in the retail price ceiling for refined oil products.
According to calculations by Zhuochuang Information, as of the close on May 19th, which was the 9th working day of the cycle, the reference crude oil change rate was 2.01%. This indicates an expected increase of 90 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel. The price adjustment window closes at 24:00 on May 21st.
"With one working day remaining until the adjustment window opens, an increase in the refined oil retail price ceiling is highly probable, with the final adjustment potentially exceeding 100 yuan per ton," stated Wang Luqing, an analyst at Zhuochuang Information. Based on this estimate, the price per liter of 92# gasoline and 0# diesel is expected to rise by approximately 0.09 yuan. Filling a 50-liter tank with 92# gasoline would therefore cost about 4.5 yuan more.
Liu Bingjuan, a refined oil analyst at Longzhong Information, also forecasts an increase of around 90 yuan per ton when the domestic retail price ceiling adjustment window reopens at 24:00 on May 21st. For a private car owner with a 70-liter fuel tank, this would translate to an additional cost of about 5 yuan to fill up.
So far this year, domestic oil prices have undergone nine adjustments, resulting in a pattern of "seven increases, one decrease, and one suspension." Compared to the end of last year, domestic gasoline and diesel prices have increased by 2,505 yuan and 2,415 yuan per ton, respectively. According to Longzhong Information's calculations, following this round of adjustment, the pattern for the year will change to "eight increases, one decrease, and one suspension."
It is important to note that while industry experts widely predict an increase in the refined oil retail price ceiling, the final adjustment result will be subject to the official announcement from the National Development and Reform Commission.
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