Abstract
First Citizens BancShares will announce quarterly results on January 23, 2026 Pre-Market, and investors are watching whether revenue near $2.29 billion and adjusted EPS around $43.97 will confirm a year-over-year uptick alongside resilient fee lines and disciplined expenses.
Market Forecast
Consensus derived from available company and compiled estimate data points to revenue of $2.29 billion for the current quarter, up 1.23% year over year, and adjusted EPS of $43.97, up 12.10% year over year; EBIT is estimated at $901.72 million, implying a year-over-year decline of 5.92%. Forecasts for gross profit margin and net profit margin are not available in the dataset, and the company has not provided explicit indications on these items for the quarter under review.
The core banking franchise is expected to anchor revenue stability, supported by recurring deposit and lending activity, with steady contributions from fee-based lines. The Silicon Valley Bank segment appears to be the most promising growth line, contributing $0.63 billion in last quarter revenue; year-over-year change for this segment was not disclosed.
Last Quarter Review
Last quarter, First Citizens BancShares reported revenue of $2.43 billion, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $0.55 billion, and adjusted EPS of $43.08, with year-over-year changes of -0.53% for revenue and -6.08% for adjusted EPS; the quarter-on-quarter change in net profit attributable to the parent company was -1.25%, while gross margin and net profit margin were not disclosed.
A key quantitative highlight was outperformance versus estimates: revenue exceeded compiled expectations by $0.14 billion and adjusted EPS beat by $1.10, reflecting resilient performance despite a softer year-over-year base. Main business contributions were diversified: Traditional Banking delivered $1.01 billion, Silicon Valley Bank contributed $0.63 billion, Commercial Banking delivered $0.46 billion, Corporate provided $0.17 billion, and Rail added $0.17 billion, with segment-level year-over-year rates not disclosed.
Current Quarter Outlook
Core Banking Franchise
The core banking franchise should remain the principal earnings anchor for First Citizens BancShares this quarter. With the revenue estimate at $2.29 billion and adjusted EPS at $43.97, management’s execution on deposit mix, loan pricing, and fee income composition will likely be central to performance. Balance-sheet stability and disciplined asset-liability management can support net interest generation even as rate dynamics shift, while a constructive mix of transaction services and treasury management fees can cushion variability in spread-related income. Operating efficiency will be a focal point; incremental cost control and careful investment prioritization can influence operating leverage, protecting margins in a phase where noninterest income and credit costs could drive variance. On credit quality, stable nonperforming trends and provisioning discipline would help underpin earnings visibility, and any signal of steady trends relative to the prior quarter’s EPS and EBIT profile could be well received by the market.
Silicon Valley Bank and Growth Lines
The Silicon Valley Bank segment remains the company’s most visible growth lever within its reported mix. Last quarter’s $0.63 billion contribution demonstrates the scale of its client activity base, and this quarter’s performance will turn on flows across deposits, payments, and advisory-linked fees. In a revenue environment projected to rise 1.23% year over year overall, the segment’s sensitivity to client capital activity and transaction volumes will be closely watched for upside catalysts. Execution in relationship-driven services—such as cash management, risk solutions, and lending to innovation clients—can reinforce fee stability and enhance cross-sell opportunities across the broader franchise. With overall EBIT estimates indicating a year-over-year decline of 5.92% for the quarter, consistent fee momentum from this segment can be an important offset if spreads compress or loan growth moderates. Communication clarity around client engagement patterns and pipeline activity should help investors gauge durability across the segment’s flows.
Stock Price Drivers This Quarter
Stock performance this quarter will likely be driven by whether reported revenue and EPS align with or exceed the $2.29 billion and $43.97 estimates, respectively. Guidance detail—either qualitative or quantitative—on deposit costs, loan yields, and fee income will shape the market’s interpretation of run-rate profitability beyond the quarter. Credit provisioning rates will be scrutinized; signals of steady asset quality can reduce uncertainty in forward EPS trajectories, while any outsized reserve build would be read as a cautionary sign about the near-term cycle. Expense discipline remains a key lever: sustained efficiency can support EBIT even if revenue mix shifts toward lower spread lines or if fee growth normalizes. Capital deployment signals, including potential capital flexibility and balance sheet optimization steps, can affect valuation perceptions and investor appetite, while commentary on integration progress and segment strategies may inform expectations for margin resilience and earnings path consistency.
Analyst Opinions
The ratio of bullish to bearish opinions in the past six months, based on collected views, is 1.00 to 0.00, with the majority side being bullish. Goldman Sachs, represented by analyst Ryan Nash, maintained a Buy rating on First Citizens BancShares with a price target of $1,950.00 within the time window. The bullish stance emphasizes improving visibility into earnings drivers, with the current-quarter EPS estimate of $43.97 implying 12.10% year-over-year growth alongside a revenue estimate of $2.29 billion, up 1.23% year over year. From a valuation and results perspective, a supportive interpretation hinges on consistent operating performance: if fee lines prove durable and expense discipline holds, EBIT’s estimated $901.72 million—even with a year-over-year decline of 5.92%—may be framed as a prudent base level, preserving flexibility for subsequent recovery as spread conditions stabilize. The buy-side narrative gravitates toward the company’s ability to translate diversified business contributions into a steadier earnings cadence; in the last quarter, adjusted EPS of $43.08 beat compiled expectations by $1.10 and revenue of $2.43 billion topped estimates by $0.14 billion, lending credibility to execution consistency entering this print. A bullish assessment also pays attention to credit quality signals: if provisioning remains balanced and nonperforming metrics are steady, investors can gain confidence that the earnings profile is resilient to near-term rate and activity dynamics. In sum, the majority bullish view anticipates a constructive confirmation of the current-quarter estimates, with an eye to whether reported numbers and commentary indicate sustained revenue mix strength, efficient cost control, and disciplined balance-sheet management as the company progresses through calendar-year 2026.Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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