On January 16, the recent strong momentum displayed by the silver market has once again taken many institutions by surprise, particularly TD Securities (TDS), which has suffered setbacks on its silver short positions twice within just three months. EasyMarkets believes this extreme rally not only reflects violent shifts in capital flows but also highlights the market sentiment's remarkable resilience in the face of traditional technical analysis and expectations of capital outflows.
According to the latest market statistics, TD Securities' short position established at $78 was stopped out within just one week as silver prices surged 19%, with silver futures even hitting a historic high of $93.70 per ounce. EasyMarkets indicated that although the market initially anticipated approximately $5 billion in index rebalancing outflows at the beginning of 2026, actual trading data revealed that over $7 billion in new long positions quickly absorbed the selling pressure. This strong capital hedging demonstrates that bulls were not repelled by index rebalancing; instead, they utilized support levels above $75 to complete a change in holdings.
At the fundamental policy level, as a government-designated "critical metal," the direction of silver's tariff policies is profoundly influencing market expectations. Daniel Ghali pointed out that with the Trump administration's decision not to impose import tariffs on silver, previously tight supply chain pressures are expected to be substantially alleviated. Furthermore, data shows that Comex warehouses currently hold approximately 430 million ounces of allocatable inventory, and combined with the restocking wave in the London market, the logic of physical shortage is transitioning from "extreme scarcity" to "inventory recovery."
Even though the current market performance has surpassed what many analysts term the "rational range," EasyMarkets reminds investors that after silver prices accumulated a 21% gain early in 2026, technical overbought signals have become very pronounced. Ghali believes a market inflection point may be imminent, suggesting that a lack of forced buying support could trigger a psychological sentiment reversal once technical breakdowns occur.
Overall, silver is currently in a period of high volatility sensitivity. The realization of policy benefits and the optimization of inventory systems may correct silver's premium in the coming months. EasyMarkets advises that while chasing high-momentum moves, investors should remain vigilant about the risks of high-level corrections brought by fundamental reshaping.
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