Morgan Stanley Adjusts China Life Insurance Risk-Return Forecast, Lowers Target Price to HK$37.9

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Following the release of CHINA LIFE's (02628) full-year 2025 results, Morgan Stanley has updated its risk-return forecast for the group. The target price for the H-shares has been reduced from HK$43.1 to HK$37.9, while maintaining an "Overweight" rating. The bank's forecasts for the company's profit attributable to shareholders for the current and next fiscal years remain largely unchanged, with adjustments within a 0.5% range. Morgan Stanley indicated that CHINA LIFE, being China's largest state-owned life insurer, is increasingly focusing on value growth and market-oriented mechanisms, with expectations for its strategy to remain stable. The firm views CHINA LIFE's product strategy for 2024 and 2025 as more cautious compared to most peers, with new business carrying lower interest rate risk. It is considered a high-quality insurer in mainland China, and its new business value is projected to achieve healthy growth in 2026.

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