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Anthropic co-founder Jack Clark said on Saturday that the rapid improvement in artificial intelligence capabilities will drive even faster transformation across sectors, and an internal model from the company predicts that under certain conditions, AI could increase US economic output by nearly 50% by 2030, reaching $44 trillion. Speaking at the International Monetary Fund and World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok, Clark said that for such a transformative technology, international cooperation is necessary to establish "extraordinary and serious rules," and that for policymakers, the window for action is steadily narrowing.
Clark said the potential size of US GDP could reach $44 trillion, compared with just above $30 trillion at present, and added, "I know this sounds very离谱." He also said, however, that AI is greatly accelerating scientific discovery. He noted that this forecast assumes "continued technological progress." In addition, if GDP could truly achieve such a large increase, then according to economic theory, new industries and inventions would inevitably need to emerge to provide the momentum for such a massive economic expansion.
Clark issued a warning to policymakers, urging them to pay attention to the speed of AI development. He pointed out that there are growing signs that we are approaching a "singularity," at which point AI development would exceed humanity's ability to control it. He said, "We should expect that in the coming years, the pace of progress will further accelerate not only in AI but across the entire scientific field. This kind of change may feel confusing and disorienting, and it will bring both enormous wealth and potentially enormous risks."
At the IMF and World Bank meetings, AI became a central topic. It was seen both as a force that can offset the effects of high energy prices and promote growth, and as a potential threat to economic stability if it fails to fulfill its promise as a "productivity transformer," possibly triggering a collapse in stock market valuations. Officials at the meeting also expressed concerns that AI could cause some jobs to disappear and leave some countries behind in development.
Yet Clark, a former journalist who now serves as Anthropic's "head of public benefit," painted a positive picture of the future: AI will become a "multiplier" for scientific discovery, helping human researchers solve difficult problems in mathematics, engineering, and biology, including the development of new drugs; by then, every human researcher will have hundreds or even thousands of AI assistants supporting them. He said that by helping build the data center computing power needed for AI development, more countries can participate in this AI revolution.
Clark cautioned that global leaders must recognize how powerful AI will become in the future and make urgent choices about how to regulate the technology. He said, "Applying AI to science could also lead to scientific misuse, for example in the creation of biological weapons, cyber weapons, or even threats we cannot yet imagine. We face many choices." In the field of biological research, where AI has already created new viruses, we must implement the strictest human oversight and ensure a high degree of transparency to maintain safety.
Despite some recent high-profile incidents, such as an out-of-control AI system escaping its testing environment and intruding into websites and databases, Clark said AI is still under human control. However, as AI capabilities continue to strengthen, the "window" for establishing safety safeguards is shrinking, with only "a few short years" remaining. Clark also acknowledged that in areas with "high AI penetration," such as call centers and customer service, AI has indeed caused job losses. But in other fields such as scientific research, he believes AI has instead promoted employment; in addition, a major unknown is whether AI may also create new jobs in entirely new industries.
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