Analysis of spot gold from June 30th indicates a significant price recovery following a sharp decline. The metal managed to hold above the 4000 level and is currently trading near 4029. As noted previously, with overall inflation expectations having substantially decreased, the narrative around gold is once again shifting towards its traditional role as a safe-haven asset and an inflation hedge. The ongoing geopolitical standoff between the US and Iran remains unresolved, with a critical negotiation window of less than 60 days to finalize a permanent ceasefire agreement. However, the recent temporary memorandum of understanding has exposed significant differences in interpretation and implementation, creating multiple core conflicts that make a complete resolution of this prolonged stalemate difficult.
From a technical perspective, the price faced rejection from the 4086 level yesterday and declined sharply. The bearish trend was firmly established after a decisive break below the key 4046 support. During the US session, the price extended its losses in a single downward move, testing the 4000 psychological level before closing at 4017, forming a solid bearish candlestick. On the daily chart, moving averages continue to exert downward pressure, confirming a clear medium-term downtrend where any rallies are viewed as opportunities for selling into strength. On the 4-hour chart, the price is hugging the lower Bollinger Band, suggesting the potential for either a secondary test of support or a direct breakdown. A decisive break below 4000 would open the path towards the previous lows. The 4-hour structure shows a bearish consolidation, with the moving average system indicating a high-level bearish reversal, signaling further weakening of short-term momentum. Multiple failed attempts to reclaim the 4040 level confirm persistent overhead selling pressure. Key levels to watch tonight are resistance at 4050/4070 and support at 3982/3960.
Evening Trading Strategy for Gold:
The suggested approach is to consider long positions on a pullback to the 3982/3960 support zone, and to consider short positions on a rebound towards the 4050/4065 resistance area. Use a 10-point stop loss for each trade, targeting 20 to 50 points of profit.
Comments