Nasdaq 100's 18% Rally Stalls as Prediction Markets See Limited Upside, with Only 27% Chance of Hitting 33,000 in 2026

After a significant rally of approximately 18% in 2026, the Nasdaq 100 Index is now facing skepticism from traders on the prediction market platform Kalshi, who do not expect it to rise much further in the second half of the year.

Speculators on the platform see roughly a 50/50 probability that the tech-heavy index will close above the 30,000-point level by the end of 2026, a milestone it first surpassed in late May.

In Tuesday's trading, the index was only about 1% below the 30,000 mark.

On Kalshi, contracts require traders to make "yes" or "no" bets on whether the Nasdaq 100 will finish the year within a specific price range, with settlements based on the index's closing price on December 31 as provided by Google.

The Nasdaq 100's impressive surge in 2026 followed a market-wide low triggered by geopolitical tensions on March 30.

From that point until June 2, fueled by renewed confidence in the AI trade, the index comprising the 100 largest non-financial stocks listed on Nasdaq surged more than 33%.

Momentum Fades

However, current market sentiment suggests this bull run may be running out of steam.

Another contract indicates a 40% probability that the Nasdaq 100's peak for 2026 will be above 32,000 points.

The index's intraday high for the year so far, reached on June 3, stands at 30,762 points.

Traders assign only about a 27% chance to the index climbing above 33,000 points before the year ends.

In a report released Tuesday, UBS suggested that while the broader market rally is expected to persist in the latter half of 2026, technology stocks might not continue to lead the charge.

This potential shift could weigh on the tech-concentrated Nasdaq 100, which recently added SpaceX as its latest component on Tuesday.

"Following a strong second quarter for semiconductor stocks, investors are increasingly looking beyond the tech sector as they reassess the next phase of the AI trade," wrote UBS Chief Investment Officer for the Americas.

"While we remain confident in the AI growth story... we have also emphasized that the next leg of the equity market advance may be marked by a broadening of market leadership."