Abstract
Kaspi.KZ will report third-quarter results on November 09, 2026 Pre-MKt; investors are watching revenue growth and EPS durability amid strong fintech and marketplace momentum.
Market Forecast
Consensus points to third-quarter revenue of 1.25 trillion KZT, a year-over-year increase of 22.67%, with forecast EBIT of 368.19 billion KZT and EPS of 1,540.94 KZT, implying EPS growth of 2.10% year over year; where provided, these values reflect Kaspi.KZ’s pre-announcement framework. Forecast commentary implies continued high gross profit margin and resilient net margin, though explicit ratios are not disclosed for the quarter. The company’s core engines across Payments, Marketplace, and Consumer Finance are expected to remain the primary contributors, with the most promising momentum expected in retail and payments monetization, supported by cross-sell synergies and user growth.
Last Quarter Review
Kaspi.KZ posted prior-quarter revenue of 1.11 trillion KZT, a gross profit margin of 71.29%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of 256.73 billion KZT with a net profit margin of 23.14%, and adjusted EPS of 1,346.00 KZT, with year-over-year revenue growth of 14.95% and EPS growth of 0.22%. The quarter delivered a strong EBIT of 373.50 billion KZT, surpassing the prior consensus, reflecting robust operating leverage from digital financial services and disciplined cost control. By business breakdown, revenue was driven by interest-related lines at 483.21 billion KZT, net fees at 408.23 billion KZT, retail at 212.59 billion KZT, and other at 8.12 billion KZT, highlighting balanced contributions across segments.
Current Quarter Outlook
Main business trajectory
Kaspi.KZ’s principal revenue drivers—interest-related income, net fee income, and retail—are positioned to sustain expansion through an integrated ecosystem model that blends payments, marketplace, and consumer finance. The forecast revenue of 1.25 trillion KZT and EBIT of 368.19 billion KZT indicate a solid absolute earnings base even as EBIT’s year-over-year growth forecast softens by 17.87%, suggesting higher growth investment or mix effects. With high prior-quarter gross margin of 71.29% and net margin of 23.14% as a backdrop, the market expects margins to remain healthy, supported by scale efficiencies and cross-platform monetization. Execution focus is likely on maintaining credit quality within consumer finance, stabilizing take rates in marketplace categories, and continuing merchant acquisition that feeds fee income.
Most promising business momentum
Retail and payments monetization appear poised for the strongest near-term growth, reinforced by forecast revenue growth of 22.67% and EPS growth of 2.10%. The retail revenue contribution of 212.59 billion KZT in the prior quarter underscores a large addressable base for upselling services via Kaspi’s super-app, where engagement drives incremental fee and advertising revenue. As consumer demand pivots toward bundled digital services, Kaspi can expand cohort lifetime value through loyalty programs and financial products that expand wallet share. The payments franchise also benefits from continued merchant onboarding and increased consumer transaction frequency, which together raise net fee income and underpin the forecast EPS resilience.
Stock-price sensitivity drivers
Investor attention this quarter should center on three factors. First, the net interest and fee income trajectory against funding cost dynamics, as any divergence could alter the implied margin path relative to the last quarter’s 23.14% net margin. Second, credit performance in consumer finance, where delinquency and charge-off trends determine provisioning needs and can create EPS variability around the 1,540.94 KZT forecast. Third, marketplace unit economics, particularly take-rate discipline and fulfillment costs, which influence EBIT’s trajectory that is forecast to contract year over year by 17.87% even as revenue grows, implying mix shifts or stepped-up investment. Clarity on these levers will inform how quickly Kaspi can translate the expected 22.67% revenue growth into sustained EPS momentum.
Analyst Opinions
The collected views skew bullish, with the majority emphasizing durable revenue growth and stable EPS supported by payments and marketplace cross-monetization. Institutions highlighting the upside point to the robust prior-quarter EBIT beat of 373.50 billion KZT versus earlier estimates and the forecast revenue acceleration to 1.25 trillion KZT, arguing that operating leverage should offset investment headwinds. Bullish commentary also references the consistency of high gross margins and the breadth of the ecosystem as buffers against macro variability. Overall, the prevailing stance expects Kaspi.KZ to deliver on revenue and maintain EPS near forecasts, with upside if credit costs remain benign and merchant monetization outpaces operating expense growth.Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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