新一轮全球金融危机，从英国开始引爆？

华尔街见闻2022-10-02

全球市场波动加剧、通胀担忧蔓延、美联储激进加息影响外溢...新一轮载入史册的全球性金融危机或正在酝酿当中。在英国央行宣布无限量购债操作后，英国的这场史诗级金融危机才暂时平静下来。但是，此次危机暴露了全球在对抗通胀方面的脆弱性，引发人们对新一轮全球性金融危机的担忧。“恐惧是会传染的，” Seven Investment Management LLP高级策略师Ben Kumar表示，“（养老）基金抛售...

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Comments

JJJjohn
2022-10-03
JJJjohn
真正的黑天鵝還沒有出現
Mikinyaa
2022-10-03
Mikinyaa
[财迷]
龙卷风风摧毁停车场
2022-10-03
龙卷风风摧毁停车场
最後一段不加，這文章發了就不給工資是嗎？
抢菜抢菜抢菜
2022-10-03
抢菜抢菜抢菜
指不定是哪國呢，英國英國不會是第一個倒下的
- 土豆灰灰:
  同意
hangyuliang
2022-10-02
hangyuliang
[微笑]
- hangyuliang:
  [微笑]
Linda2240
2022-10-02
Linda2240
[微笑]
- Linda2240:
  [微笑]

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“鉴于大多数市场面临相似度很强的宏观因素——高通胀、增长放缓和货币政策收紧等，投资者经常将一个市场的新政策外推到其他市场。投资公司Principal Global Investors首席全球策略师Seema Shah告诉媒体，金边债券（英国国债）市场是英国特有的，但通胀不是，对通胀的担忧正在全球各地蔓延。在大西洋彼岸的美国，美国10年期通胀保值国债(TIPS)实际收益率本周一度触及十二年来的最高水平，投资者押注通胀压力将迫使美联储在可预见的未来保持较高的利率。全球市场高度融合，走势同步性趋强也有人认为现在担心英国危机会演变成为全球性金融危机还为时过早。投资公司Columbia Threadneedle Investment高级利率策略师Ed Al-Hussainy表示，只有当英国的抛售浪潮开始损害美国债市后，这种情况才会发生。在我们看来，到目前为止，它加剧了流动性的不足，但不足以引发对金融稳定的担忧。但无法否认的是，英国市场与其他发达市场高度融合。作为全球主要金融中心，英国在美国和全球其他市场的资产上投资了数万亿美元。美国作为全球第一大经济体，其一举一动也影响着全球金融市场的走势。从历史经验来看，美联储的紧缩周期往往会引发全球性的金融问题，其中最明显的是2008年全球金融危机，还有多轮新兴市场危机，1998年对冲基金长期资本管理倒闭引发的金融市场地震，以及2019年9月隔夜借贷市场的内爆。当宽松的钱消失时，坏事就会接踵而来。自美联储开始加息以来，美元强势造成其他货币承压，导致多国被迫跟随加息，引发了一场本币保卫战，但结果通常以“血流成河”告终。现在看来，英国或是美联储激进加息的第一个主要受害者。此外，全球市场走势的同步性比以往更强，其中一项指标显示，跨资产相关性接近17年来的最高水平。英格兰银行承诺无限量购买长期国债后，英镑几乎收复了所有失地，但当天的跨市场波动性仍然很高。从整个星期来看，美国10年期国债收益率一直与英国金边债券保持同步波动。在美国银行看来，随着美国债市压力逼近临界点，美联储若再不调整政策，债市失灵的风险加剧，局面将变得一发不可控制。届时的美国将成为下一个英国。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9912142381,"gmtCreate":1664780403543,"gmtModify":1676537507341,"author":{"id":"4124265982251912","authorId":"4124265982251912","name":"JJJjohn","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3a039f8e9ba2554d27038261d03a4f3d","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4124265982251912","authorIdStr":"4124265982251912"},"htmlText":"真正的黑天鵝還沒有出現","listText":"真正的黑天鵝還沒有出現","text":"真正的黑天鵝還沒有出現","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9912142381","repostId":1132318005,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9912159118,"gmtCreate":1664776600134,"gmtModify":1676537506842,"author":{"id":"3575534613319772","authorId":"3575534613319772","name":"Mikinyaa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a2c57746358b22078da48731022679c","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3575534613319772","authorIdStr":"3575534613319772"},"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9912159118","repostId":1132318005,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9912166146,"gmtCreate":1664773251786,"gmtModify":1676537506264,"author":{"id":"4091579618300750","authorId":"4091579618300750","name":"龙卷风风摧毁停车场","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51e33e575161f55b878416594687a8cf","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4091579618300750","authorIdStr":"4091579618300750"},"htmlText":"最後一段不加，這文章發了就不給工資是嗎？","listText":"最後一段不加，這文章發了就不給工資是嗎？","text":"最後一段不加，這文章發了就不給工資是嗎？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9912166146","repostId":1132318005,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":668296118,"gmtCreate":1664771136336,"gmtModify":1676537505970,"author":{"id":"4094264306111180","authorId":"4094264306111180","name":"抢菜抢菜抢菜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d88e7e981b45f31b1e854316995c1089","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4094264306111180","authorIdStr":"4094264306111180"},"htmlText":"指不定是哪國呢，英國英國不會是第一個倒下的","listText":"指不定是哪國呢，英國英國不會是第一個倒下的","text":"指不定是哪國呢，英國英國不會是第一個倒下的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/668296118","repostId":1132318005,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":104197843,"gmtCreate":1664774714208,"gmtModify":1664774717501,"authorId":3578932325713902,"author":{"id":3578932325713902,"idStr":"3578932325713902","authorId":3578932325713902,"name":"土豆灰灰","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b02b5048849373892b959fbd6cecfad","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":668296118,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<span 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