According to informed sources, QatarEnergy has not indicated to its Asian clients that it will extend its force majeure clause. The company typically provides about one month's notice before such an extension, a strong signal that it intends to let the clause formally expire in mid-July. A similar force majeure clause covering European buyers is expected to expire in mid-August, with buyers also anticipating its termination.
The force majeure clause allows suppliers to delay deliveries due to uncontrollable factors like war or extreme weather. Its removal will release previously constrained Qatari LNG cargoes, helping to ease Europe's anxiety over spot supply availability during a period of low inventories. It will also provide Asian buyers with more abundant procurement options during the peak summer electricity demand period driven by high temperatures. The nearly four-month-long global LNG supply crisis is finally seeing the light of substantive relief.
The Path to Reopening: The Strait of Hormuz
The direct prerequisite for Qatar lifting its force majeure is the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. In March 2026, an Iranian missile strike on Qatar's massive Ras Laffan LNG facility severely damaged two liquefaction trains. This was followed by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off roughly one-fifth of global LNG supply. QatarEnergy declared force majeure in March, shocking the market—this Gulf producer is renowned for its reliability and has rarely interrupted supply even during turbulent times.
Following multiple rounds of negotiations, the US and Iran formally signed a provisional peace agreement in Switzerland on June 19. On June 23, Iran's permanent representative to the UN office in Geneva, Bahreini, officially confirmed that the Strait of Hormuz was fully open to global commercial shipping for 60 days, with no passage fees charged during this period. Concurrently, the US Treasury Department issued oil export exemption licenses, and a phased unfreezing of Iran's $12 billion in overseas frozen assets commenced.
However, the fragility of this peace window cannot be ignored. A core limitation of the current agreement is that consensus remains concentrated in technical areas like economics and navigation; the most critical nuclear issue has not yet entered substantive discussions. Both sides have established a roadmap to strive for a final agreement within 60 days, setting up a high-level committee to coordinate the effort. The agreement stipulates that the management of the Strait of Hormuz after the 60-day period will be jointly decided by Iran and Oman. Iran has explicitly stated that whether the Strait remains open after 60 days depends entirely on the US's compliance. Israel represents the largest external variable—should conflict reignite in southern Lebanon, Iran could resume the blockade of the Strait at any time.
Despite this, shipping data is already showing positive signals. Vessel tracking data indicates that the LNG carrier "Al Hamla," owned by QatarEnergy, became the first vessel to transit the Strait of Hormuz into the Persian Gulf post-conflict, heading to Ras Laffan to load LNG as a ballast vessel, with an expected load exceeding 209,000 cubic meters. Up to eight ballast LNG carriers have arrived at the Ras Laffan hub, ready to load super-chilled natural gas in the coming days. Additional LNG carriers are also en route to the Strait of Hormuz. The movement of these vessels signals that Qatar's LNG export chain is restarting.
Restoration Timeline: 50% in One Month, 80% in Two
The Qatari government has established a clear restoration timetable. Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani stated this week that, aside from the damaged facilities, Qatar plans to resume normal LNG production within weeks. According to informed sources, QatarEnergy has informed buyers it expects to raise production to approximately 50% of capacity within one month of the safe resumption of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, and to about 80% within two months. This timeline is faster than some analysts and traders had previously anticipated.
Qatar's pre-conflict LNG capacity was approximately 77 million tonnes per annum. The market had previously expected a global LNG supply surplus of around 60 million tonnes in 2026. The sudden removal of roughly 12.8 million tonnes of Qatari supply effectively eliminated this buffer overnight. Estimates suggest the Asian market alone lost about 10.2 million tonnes per annum of LNG supply. QatarEnergy has been preparing for a rapid restoration since April, including testing equipment and conducting necessary maintenance. Several production lines have been operating at reduced capacity, supplying neighboring countries while preserving operational flexibility for subsequent increases.
Data from Kayrros, the satellite monitoring division of energy consultancy Energy Aspects, shows that the Ras Laffan Train 3 resumed operations last Sunday. However, the restoration path is not without obstacles. On June 22, a technical accident during restart operations at the Ras Laffan plant caused an explosion, resulting in 13 deaths and at least 66 injuries. This event adds uncertainty to the restoration process. QatarEnergy still anticipates restoring all available capacity before October.
Permanent Scars on Capacity: 17% Requiring 3-5 Years to Repair
Despite the accelerating restoration process, the Ras Laffan facility has sustained "permanent scars" to its capacity. The mid-March Iranian missile strike damaged two of Qatar's 14 liquefaction trains—Trains 4 and 6—accounting for about 17% of the country's LNG export capacity. QatarEnergy's CEO, Saad Al Kaabi, previously stated that repair work would take three to five years. A gas-to-liquids fuel facility was also affected and is expected to be offline for at least a year.
This means that even after restoring 80% of capacity within two months, the Ras Laffan plant will operate below pre-conflict levels for the long term. The global LNG market will continue to face a structural supply deficit for the foreseeable future—approximately 17% of Qatar's capacity will be absent from the market for several years. Furthermore, Qatar's shutdown also severed about 30% of global helium supply capacity. Helium, a byproduct of the Ras Laffan LNG facility, is widely used in semiconductor manufacturing, medical imaging, and the aerospace industry. Helium supply recovery will progress in tandem with LNG restoration.
Market Impact: Spot Premiums Narrow, But Structural Gap Remains
The lifting of force majeure by Qatar will have a profound impact on the global LNG market. For global investors and energy purchasers, the return of Qatari LNG is undoubtedly a positive signal—but it does not mean the alarm has been completely silenced. The 60-day opening window for the Strait of Hormuz, the unresolved US-Iran nuclear issue, and the deep-seated structural conflicts in Middle East geopolitics all mean this "stabilizing pill for the global LNG market" could be withdrawn at any time.
In the short term, the lifting of force majeure will release the previously constrained Qatari LNG cargoes, significantly improving liquidity in the global LNG market and likely narrowing spot price premiums. Asian buyers will have more abundant procurement options during the peak summer electricity demand period. The head of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum stated this week that if the Strait of Hormuz remains open, the gas market will begin to stabilize in the third quarter; by the fourth quarter, if shipping in the Persian Gulf remains unimpeded, the gas market should achieve rebalancing.
In the medium term, the three-to-five-year repair timeline for approximately 17% of Qatar's capacity means the global LNG market will still face structural supply constraints. Whether the actual commissioning progress of Qatar's North Field expansion project matches expectations remains a key variable. Additionally, the pricing mechanisms for Qatar's long-term contracts may face renegotiation—market price volatility during the force majeure period has profoundly altered the risk expectations of both buyers and sellers.
Geopolitical risk remains the largest variable. The 60-day opening window for the Strait of Hormuz has a clear time limit. Should the situation deteriorate again, QatarEnergy could reactivate force majeure at any time. Recent attacks on merchant vessels have already reignited market concerns. Shipowners, traders, and producers are still closely monitoring the situation for further clarity.
For Asian economies reliant on Qatari LNG—particularly China, South Korea, and Japan—the restoration of Qatari supply will significantly alleviate energy security pressures. Currently, Qatar is almost South Korea's sole long-term LNG supply source in the Middle East, with contracts from other Middle Eastern countries having expired. For Europe, the return of Qatari LNG will help ease supply anxieties ahead of winter while inventories are at low levels.
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