Abstract
Ero Copper will release its quarterly results on March 05, 2026 Post Market, with investor focus on revenue acceleration and EPS trajectory amid operational updates from recent projects.
Market Forecast
Consensus-derived projections indicate Ero Copper’s current-quarter revenue at $288.73 million with an estimated year-over-year increase of 96.99%, and adjusted EPS at 1.052 with an estimated year-over-year increase of 244.01%; no explicit consensus gross margin or net margin forecast was found, though company-level forecasts imply solid profitability. The main business is copper, which is projected to benefit from volume normalization and supportive prices, while gold contributes a smaller portion. The most promising segment appears to be refined copper (“精铜”), with revenue of $149.72 million last quarter and ongoing YoY expansion supported by throughput and grade improvements.
Last Quarter Review
Ero Copper’s previous quarter delivered revenue of $177.09 million, gross profit margin of 33.02%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $35.98 million, net profit margin of 20.32%, and adjusted EPS of 0.27; revenue grew 41.86% year over year and EPS undershot the prior estimate. Net profit decreased quarter over quarter by 49.00%, reflecting cost timing, mix, and ramp dynamics. Main business highlights: refined copper revenue was $149.72 million and gold revenue was $27.37 million, with copper comprising 84.54% of the mix.
Current Quarter Outlook
Main Business: Copper Operations
Copper remains the core revenue and earnings driver, accounting for 84.54% of last quarter’s revenue. The company’s forecast implies a sharp step-up in revenue to $288.73 million, pointing to stronger copper sales volumes and stabilizing realized prices. Margin preservation hinges on operating costs per pound and grade profiles, and the prior-quarter gross margin of 33.02% sets a baseline. Operational sequencing and the timing of shipments can meaningfully affect quarter-to-quarter EPS, and the forecasted 1.052 EPS suggests improved unit economics and volumes. Capital discipline and the efficiency of underground mining activities will influence cost absorption and throughput, and any metallurgical or maintenance disruptions could impact the reported margins.
Most Promising Segment: Refined Copper (“精铜”)
Refined copper posted $149.72 million last quarter and remains positioned for expansion in the current quarter as throughput and recoveries normalize. The expected revenue acceleration for the group combined with supportive copper prices underpins the refined copper segment’s growth outlook. Integration of production schedules with offtake agreements should smooth revenue recognition and help reduce volatility in quarter-end shipments. The sensitivity to grade variation is nontrivial; higher-grade stopes can produce significant quarter-over-quarter earnings uplift, and guidance implies such operational tailwinds. Cost control on consumables and power, along with incremental process improvements, could further support gross margin resilience in this segment.
Key Stock Price Drivers This Quarter
Revenue outturn versus the $288.73 million estimate and EPS versus 1.052 will be central to stock reaction, particularly after last quarter’s EPS of 0.27 and a quarter-on-quarter net profit decline of 49.00%. Investors will parse gross margin durability relative to the prior 33.02% level to gauge whether operating expense inflation is contained and whether unit cash costs have improved. Shipment timing and inventory movements can amplify headline results; a stronger sales mix in copper, coupled with minimal dilution from lower-margin products, would be supportive. The balance between production volumes, realized pricing, and exchange rate effects may also influence net margin dynamics; the prior net margin of 20.32% provides context for this quarter’s profitability target. Any commentary on project ramps, maintenance windows, or grade sequencing will be closely watched as leading indicators for the remainder of the year.
Analyst Opinions
The majority of institutional views skew bullish, emphasizing the expected rebound in quarterly EPS and revenue expansion aligned with copper volume normalization and supportive pricing. Recent analyst commentary highlights improved throughput and sales alignment that should bolster earnings quality relative to the last quarter’s shipment timing challenges. Coverage from well-known institutions points to constructive near-term dynamics, with the focus on whether the company can deliver against the $288.73 million revenue and 1.052 EPS forecasts and stabilize margins around or above recent levels.Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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