Gold prices experienced a rollercoaster ride yesterday, June 2nd. After a slight dip at the Asian session open, prices began to rebound, breaking directly through the 4500 level and reaching a high near 4540 US dollars. However, the US session saw a decline, with prices essentially giving back all the gains from the earlier session by the close. Gold ultimately settled at 4488 dollars, forming a small bullish candle on the daily chart.
As of Wednesday, June 3rd, the US-Iran situation is at its most dangerous phase, characterized by a dual-track approach of "negotiations and warfare running in parallel." The past day witnessed the most intense and widespread full-scale conflict since the war began on February 28th. A tug-of-war at the negotiation table is unfolding simultaneously with artillery fire on the battlefield—this is no longer a simple question of "war or peace," but a chaotic state where both exist and intensify each other.
It can be said that the true state of negotiations is "formally ongoing but substantively stalled." The US insistence that "talks are still happening" is largely a political necessity, as the administration faces midterm elections and urgently needs an agreement to lower oil prices and placate public sentiment. Iran, on the other hand, is using the "suspension of talks" as leverage to pressure the US into making concessions on core issues, while simultaneously escalating military actions to strengthen its negotiating position.
However, tonight's Automatic Data Processing Inc (ADP) employment data at 20:15 serves as a "preview" for Friday's main event. If the ADP data is strong, it suggests a hot labor market, which would boost expectations for interest rate hikes, strengthen the US dollar, and potentially put downward pressure on gold prices, testing lower support levels. Conversely, if the ADP data is weak, indicating a cooling job market, it would revive recession fears and expectations for rate cuts, potentially giving gold an opportunity to rebound and test resistance levels. We are like athletes waiting for the referee's whistle; it's not advisable to move recklessly now. It's better to wait for a clearer direction before following the trend.
From a technical perspective, yesterday's rebound in gold was merely a fleeting reaction influenced by US dollar movements. With prices now back below 4500, the overall structural bias has shifted downward again. Intraday, focus should be on the resistance from the hourly moving average band around 4496-4506. As long as prices do not break above this band, the overall bias remains weak, increasing the likelihood of a gradual, oscillating decline. Below, initial attention should be on the lower boundary of the hourly range around 4450-4440. If accompanied by negative news, gold might seek support near 4410-4400.
In summary, the current situation is typical of a "capped top and supported bottom" pattern. Hawkish Federal Reserve expectations and a strong US dollar are suppressing any significant rally, while central bank gold purchases and geopolitical risks are providing a floor, preventing a major decline. The next major variable is the US Non-Farm Payrolls data this Friday, June 6th. Until then, prices are expected to maintain a wide oscillation between 4450 and 4540. Trading strategies should naturally reflect this range-bound environment.
Therefore, the following intraday trading suggestions are offered:
Gold: Consider a long position around 4458-4460, with a stop loss at 4450, targeting 4530-4550. Abandon the long idea if the price breaks below 4450.
Key Economic Data and Events to Watch Today: Wednesday, June 3rd, 2026
20:15 US May ADP Employment Change
21:00 Fed Governor Barr Participates in a Dialogue
21:45 US May S&P Global Services PMI Final
22:00 US May ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
22:00 US April Factory Orders MoM
Next Day 02:00 Fed Releases Beige Book on Economic Conditions
Next Day 04:00 Fed's Logan Delivers Remarks
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