Is Gold Repeating the 2013 Crash?

Gold analyst P. Radomski has published a new note this week arguing that gold may have finished its last rebound and is now entering a dangerous phase similar to the period just before the April 2013 plunge. In his view, the next leg down could push prices toward $3,500. He first made his bearish call two months ago.

On September 1, when gold was still trading near $4,426, he argued that the following months could repeat the 2012-2013 pattern. Gold subsequently fell sharply. Below is the gist of his overall view.

Gold may be replaying the 2013 crash

The core evidence is that both episodes show a similar three-stage sequence. In April 2013, gold broke below its prior low but did not collapse immediately. Instead, it rebounded for three consecutive trading sessions, giving investors the illusion that the decline was over. Then concentrated selling suddenly hit: a 5.1% drop on April 12 and another 9.1% slide on April 15.

An almost identical structure is appearing in 2026. On October 30, gold set a swing low of $3,879. On November 9, it rebounded to $4,157. On November 12, it fell again to $3,856, breaking the earlier low. On November 13, it bounced back to around $3,900.

The 2026 move is unfolding faster than in 2013

In 2013, the journey from the final rebound high to the break below the prior low took 13 calendar days. In 2026, the same process took only 3 calendar days. The author concludes that the 2026 downtrend structure is not only similar to 2013 but is evolving more quickly. If history repeats, gold may not have enough time to consolidate before the next sharp drop. He therefore sets $3,500 as the next-stage target.

Two events that should have helped gold but failed to lift it

First, Friday's U.S. PPI came in below expectations, yet gold failed to produce a sustained rebound. Second, escalation in the Middle East conflict did not stop gold from falling. War headlines that would normally drive gold higher are now having a negative effect on the metal. In 2013, gold's "real" plunge came after it broke support and staged a brief rebound. The author believes gold in 2026 has already reached that dangerous position. History does not have to repeat, but a rebound after a major decline is exactly what most easily lowers people's guard.

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