**Gold Market Trend Analysis:** On December 15, spot gold showed a narrow-range uptick in early Asian trading, hovering around $4,319.17 per ounce. Despite the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on further rate cuts pending more data, market expectations of two potential cuts in 2024 continue to bolster gold prices. As a traditional safe-haven asset, gold remains attractive amid heightened global uncertainties.
Last Friday (December 12), gold posted strong gains, with spot prices rising 0.48% to close near $4,300 per ounce, peaking at $4,353—the highest level since October 21. U.S. gold futures also climbed 0.4%, settling at $4,328.3. The rally reflects bullish sentiment, particularly after the Fed’s third 25-basis-point rate cut last week, which reinforced expectations of accommodative monetary policy.
**Technical Outlook:** Gold is likely to consolidate within a range early this week, with key data releases—including U.S. nonfarm payrolls (Tuesday), CPI (Thursday), and the Bank of Japan’s rate decision (Friday)—poised to drive volatility. A potential BoJ rate hike is a major market focus.
Previously, gold faced resistance twice near $4,380, forming a "double top" bearish pattern before rebounding from $3,900. The subsequent symmetrical triangle consolidation, coupled with the prior uptrend, suggests a "bull flag" continuation pattern, supporting further gains.
On the daily chart, gold has broken above its consolidation range, holding firmly above $4,200 with sustained bullish momentum. Consecutive bullish candles, a rising moving average lineup, and expanding MACD histogram signal strength. The RSI remains in bullish territory without overbought extremes, indicating room for upside.
Hourly charts show gold oscillating higher with limited pullbacks, supported by short-term moving averages. While the MACD’s bullish crossover and RSI fluctuations hint at minor corrections, the overall uptrend remains intact.
**Trading Strategy:** Today’s gold trading favors buying on dips, with resistance at $4,350–$4,370 and support at $4,295–$4,275.
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**Crude Oil Market Trend Analysis:** Early Asian trading on December 15 saw U.S. crude oil near $57.53 per barrel, following a weekly loss exceeding 4%. Persistent oversupply concerns and geopolitical tensions, including Ukraine peace talks, weighed on prices.
Last Friday, both Brent and WTI futures fell $0.16, settling at $61.12 and $57.44 per barrel, respectively, marking a fourth consecutive weekly decline.
**Technical Outlook:** Daily charts show oil oscillating near the $56 support level, with MACD hovering below zero, indicating weak bearish momentum. A break below $56 could signal a medium-term downtrend.
Hourly trends reflect sideways movement between $56.80 and $58.10, with MACD below zero suggesting subdued bearish dominance. Intraday trading is expected to remain range-bound, with upper resistance intact.
**Trading Strategy:** Today’s crude oil strategy leans toward buying on dips, with resistance at $59.0–$60.0 and support at $56.5–$55.5.
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