From October 20 to 22, by the banks of the Huangpu River in Shanghai, the 2026 Sustainable Global Leaders Conference will once again take place. Nobel Prize and Turing Award winners will take the stage to discuss the future and trends of technology, and the internet-famous professor who "rescues" people from anxiety and the era of involution, Michael McFarlane, will hold a live dialogue with Xiang Biao!
Seats are limited, so act fast. Let us embark on this sustainable journey together! [Click to register] On October 19, the National Bureau of Statistics released economic data for the first three quarters of this year. According to preliminary calculations, gross domestic product for the first three quarters reached 107.1071 trillion yuan, up 4.6% year on year at constant prices. Through this report card, one must observe not only the speed of economic growth but also the changes behind that growth. On the same day, China News Service's Guoshi Zhitongche held the "2026 Mid-Year Economic Situation Analysis Meeting," inviting experts from various fields to provide analysis and interpretation.
The share of intangible asset investment this year may reach a recent high. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that from January to September, national fixed asset investment totaled 33.4115 trillion yuan, down 7.2% year on year. Guo Liyan, deputy director and researcher at the Investment Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that in the first three quarters, a series of measures to stabilize investment and expand domestic demand took concentrated effect, the investment structure was further optimized, and quality and efficiency improved. Although the growth rate of fixed asset investment continued to decline, the decline in manufacturing investment has narrowed. At present, effective investment is more focused on playing a key role in scientific and technological innovation, industrial upgrading, and strengthening foundations. Among these, in the first three quarters, investment in intellectual property products increased 9.3% year on year. In her view, the further expansion of the share of intangible asset investment reflects the continuously strengthening endogenous innovation driving force supporting high-quality economic development. Looking ahead to the full year, the share of intangible asset investment should be at a recent high. At present, investment in key areas related to the "six networks" is accelerating. Guo Liyan said that traditional infrastructure is accelerating its transformation toward new infrastructure, and driven by major projects, investment momentum is improving. Data show that investment related to major infrastructure networks such as information transmission, air transport, and water transport has maintained double-digit growth. Guo Liyan said that looking ahead to the full year, positive factors and favorable conditions for stabilizing investment will continue to increase, and the synergy between existing policies and incremental policies will further strengthen. She said it is necessary to seize the fourth-quarter construction window, accelerate the pace of channeling new policy-based financial instruments into projects, strengthen vertical and horizontal coordination, promote coordinated efforts across various policies, and effectively translate policy effects into tangible physical work volume in all fields.
Positive factors for stabilizing real estate are continuously accumulating. Wu Jing, director of the Real Estate Research Center at Tsinghua University, pointed out that if one considers the operation of the second-hand housing market, the earlier release of changes in commercial residential sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities, and the formulation, implementation, and introduction of a series of new policies in the third quarter, positive factors for stabilizing the real estate sector are continuously accumulating. Nationwide, the area of real estate sales is shifting from being mainly incremental to mainly existing stock, and this change is irreversible. Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 19th show that from January to September, the online signing area for second-hand housing transactions was 617.46 million square meters, up 10.7% year on year. "The overall stability of transaction scale reflects that residents' reasonable housing demand is in the process of continuous release, and it also provides support for the subsequent stabilization of prices and further improvement in market expectations," Wu Jing said. On prices, based on changes in commercial residential sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities in September, whether on a month-on-month or year-on-year basis, the overall decline in prices is narrowing, and prices in first-tier cities are showing a series of positive changes, especially second-hand housing sales prices in first-tier cities; in addition, the year-on-year decline in housing prices in first-, second-, and third-tier cities all generally narrowed. He said this also reflects that the momentum toward stabilization in the price dimension has been further sustained. The rebalancing of supply and demand in the market is also continuing to advance. Wu Jing said that in many cities, completed but unsold commercial housing inventory and overall area available for sale have shown relatively obvious declines at the same time. In second-hand housing markets in some major first- and second-tier cities such as Beijing and Wuhan, the number of listed properties is in the process of declining, showing that in both new-home and second-hand housing markets, the rebalancing of market supply and demand is developing in a healthier direction. In addition, major progress has been made in building a new model for real estate development. Wu Jing said that on August 28, a series of foundational documents for building a new model of real estate development were released simultaneously. The important foundational systems for the new model of real estate development have basically taken shape. On September 20, the newly revised Regulations on the Management of Housing Provident Funds officially took effect, further broadening the scope for withdrawing and using provident funds. The home purchase loan interest subsidy policy launched on September 29 marked the first time at the central level that interest subsidies were implemented for home purchase loans. These policies are gradually forming synergy from foundational systems and the demand side and taking effect together. He said: "Over the past few years, we have been building 'good houses' to make residents 'want to buy homes.' Our new model centered on presale housing makes residents 'dare to buy homes.' Improvements to the provident fund system and fiscal interest subsidies give resident families stronger and greater ability to buy homes. With policies linked in this way, it helps transform potential demand into actual home-buying behavior."
AI and related products have become an important driver of China's exports. Wu Ge, chief economist at Changjiang Securities, said that among the "three carriages" driving GDP growth, exports grew relatively quickly and contributed prominently. In particular, since the beginning of this year, AI and AI-related products have provided an important boost to China's exports. Customs authorities previously announced that in the first three quarters of this year, the combined imports and exports of Chinese industrial robots, electronic components, computer parts, and electrical equipment exceeded 10 trillion yuan, up 58.9% year on year, driving overall import and export growth by 11.3 percentage points. During the same period, integrated circuit exports increased 99.1% year on year, while green products such as electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and wind turbine generators and their parts grew 72.3%, 36.4%, and 22.4%, respectively. Looking ahead one to two years, Wu Ge pointed out that although there is geopolitical uncertainty in the global macroeconomic environment, overall conditions remain favorable for China's manufacturing exports. He said that from a longer cycle perspective, the global manufacturing cycle has not yet ended. On one hand, AI is driving growth in computing power and infrastructure investment; on the other hand, countries are still restructuring industrial chains, and spending in related fields is rising, both of which are expected to continue supporting external demand. Overall, the external environment favorable to China's manufacturing exports has not changed.
The highlights and advantages of China's foreign trade will further strengthen in the fourth quarter. Overall, in the first three quarters of this year, total goods imports and exports reached 39.9399 trillion yuan, up 18.8% year on year. Zhou Mi, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation under the Ministry of Commerce, analyzed that from the perspective of aggregate data, goods imports and exports in the first three quarters of this year were close to 40 trillion yuan, already approaching the full-year foreign trade import and export figure for 2022. The speed of growth is relatively rare among major global economies. Over the past few years, the pace of China's foreign trade development shows that the complementary trade relationship between various countries and China is strengthening, which also provides stronger support for economic growth in various countries. Looking at imports and exports separately, in the first three quarters, exports were 23.1979 trillion yuan, up 16.4%; imports were 16.742 trillion yuan, up 22.3%. He believes that import growth has been faster than export growth for several consecutive quarters, and China's import scale is already close to that of the United States in magnitude, with the gap between the two countries also narrowing in terms of increments. This shows that China not only has the willingness to share its ultra-large market but is also actually doing so, bringing benefits to various countries. By business entity and industrial sector, in the first three quarters, China's private enterprises imported and exported 22.73 trillion yuan, up 19.1%, accounting for 56.9% of total foreign trade value and continuing to maintain their position as the largest foreign trade entity. Exports of mechanical and electrical products grew 23.7%, accounting for 64.3% of total exports. "The growth vitality of private enterprises is very prominent," Zhou Mi said. More and more private enterprises are participating in international trade, gaining space for their own development through international trade, and also bringing more vitality to international trade. In Zhou Mi's view, the relatively fast growth of mechanical and electrical product exports is essentially because various countries need Chinese mechanical and electrical products, and Chinese mechanical and electrical products can provide them with more support. Accounting for more than 60% of exports "shows that we have very deep mutually beneficial relationships with many countries in vertical industrial fields." Zhou Mi believes that the highlights and advantages formed by China's foreign trade in the first three quarters will further strengthen in the fourth quarter. From manufacturing and services to technological cooperation, China's foreign trade development in the fourth quarter will also have stronger momentum support.
Economic policy is shifting from short-term stimulus to long-term institutional development. Lu Liping, a professor at the School of Finance and China Financial Policy Research Center at Renmin University of China and deputy director of the China Banking Research Center, noted that on the demand side, exports performed brightly, but total retail sales of consumer goods and fixed asset investment performed weakly; on prices, in September PPI rose 5% year on year and CPI rose 0.9% year on year, meaning "price changes on the production side have not been fully transmitted to the consumption side"; in terms of growth momentum, in August value added in high-tech manufacturing rose 16.7% year on year, while real estate investment from January to August fell 19.9%, showing a clear contrast between old and new growth drivers. Specifically, the foreign trade structure continued to optimize. In the first three quarters, China's goods trade exports grew 16.4%, equipment manufacturing contributed nearly 90% of export growth, Chinese-made independent brands accounted for 24.8%, and export products shifted toward the mid-to-high end. Consumption structure diverged, with communication equipment growing relatively fast, while gold, silver, jewelry, and home retail weakened; National Day tourism consumption rebounded, laying a foundation for subsequent consumption. "Total investment is contracting," Lu Liping said, but investment in intellectual property products and high-tech industries maintained relatively rapid growth. It can be said that this broadly shows a trend of growth in investment in new quality productive forces. On the corporate side, from January to August, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide grew 15.7%. "Profits were created, but they exist in forms such as accounts receivable, putting certain pressure on corporate cash flow." Lu Liping believes that fiscal and monetary policies will work together, while the focus of policy is shifting, "from short-term stimulus to long-term institutional development and mechanism building." Fiscal policy will increase countercyclical adjustment, and monetary policy will remain moderately loose; institutional measures will be introduced around new quality productive forces, income distribution, social security, and consumption tax reform, balancing short-term growth stabilization with medium- and long-term development.
China's development of new quality productive forces shows impressive performance. Wang Jiaqiang, a senior researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute, said that based on the economic data for the first three quarters, it can be observed that China's development of new quality productive forces shows impressive performance. Looking at the economic data, the "three new" economy will account for nearly 20% of GDP this year, while the share of real estate and construction is approaching 10%, and the contribution rate of new growth drivers to economic growth has exceeded 40%. Globally, AI is becoming the core engine of a new round of technological transformation, and the cross-integration of digital, energy, biological, and other technologies is reshaping economic logic. "China possesses two prominent advantages at the same time: innovation and green development. Europe stands out in green development but has relatively little innovation, while the United States is stronger in innovation but weaker in green development," Wang Jiaqiang pointed out. China ranks among the world's leaders in multiple innovation indicators, and open-source large models, new energy, and new energy vehicles have achieved leaps from catching up to running in parallel and leading. Driven by AI, in the short term demand is pulled by investment in computing power and data centers, while in the long term it penetrates the entire industrial chain as a general-purpose technology and raises total factor productivity, but there is a lag in supply-side release, as well as potential risks such as asset bubbles. He also cautioned that multiple challenges exist in reality: new growth drivers have not yet fully replaced old ones, and some industries are insufficient in scale; there are shortcomings in key technologies such as precision instruments and high-end chips; some regions blindly launch emerging projects, and risks of overcapacity must be prevented. Wang Jiaqiang suggested that at the macro level, the monetary and financial environment should be solidified; industrial policy should balance the cultivation of emerging industries with support for traditional industries and leave room for trial and error; and institutional reform should address derivative risks brought by AI, escorting the steady and long-term development of new quality productive forces.
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