Shenwan Hongyuan has issued a research report reiterating a "Buy" rating on CHICMAX (02145). The company's long-term advantages are built on multi-brand synergy, channel optimization, and increased research and development investment. The effectiveness of its strategic execution continues to be evident. While boosting R&D, the company is focusing on core product categories, upgrading its channel structure, diversifying its product range, and precisely positioning new brands. This approach allows it to benefit from both the rise of domestic brands and the trend of value-for-money consumption, while also unlocking growth in the mid-to-high-end and specialized segments. Based on the 2025 performance forecast, the firm has raised its 2025 estimates but lowered its projections for 2026-2027. It anticipates CHICMAX's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 to be RMB 1.154 billion, RMB 1.452 billion, and RMB 1.738 billion, respectively, corresponding to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18x, 15x, and 12x.
Key points from Shenwan Hongyuan are as follows:
Performance exceeded expectations, with both revenue and profit achieving strong growth and profit quality continuing to improve. The company released a positive profit alert for 2025, showing impressive core operational data. On the revenue side: 2025 revenue is forecasted to be between RMB 9.1 billion and RMB 9.2 billion, compared to RMB 6.8 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 34.0% to 35.4%. Revenue scale is expanding steadily, breaking through the RMB 9 billion mark. On the profit side: Shareholder's net profit for 2025 is expected to be between RMB 1.14 billion and RMB 1.16 billion, compared to RMB 803 million in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 41.9% to 44.4%. Profit growth is significantly higher than revenue growth, indicating continued improvement in profit efficiency. Second Half 2025 Performance: The second half performance was robust, significantly exceeding the growth rate of the first half. H2 2025 revenue is estimated between RMB 4.992 billion and RMB 5.092 billion, a year-on-year increase of approximately 51.71% to 54.75%. H2 2025 profit is estimated between RMB 584 million and RMB 604 million, a year-on-year increase of approximately 49.25% to 54.36%.
Multi-brand portfolio demonstrates differentiated growth, with core brands leading and emerging brands breaking through. 1) Core brand Kans: As the primary growth engine, Kans' "Red Waist" series sold 16.5 million sets online by 2025. Kans has topped the Douyin beauty sales chart for three consecutive years. 2) Emerging brand NewPage: Revenue increased significantly year-on-year, becoming a new growth driver for the company. The infant efficacy skincare segment combines high growth potential with high gross margins. With precise market positioning and a focus on efficacious products, NewPage is rapidly capturing market share in its niche, demonstrating the company's strong capability in incubating new brands.
Comprehensive upward momentum builds a core competitive barrier. ① Brand Heritage: Having experienced the "big screen advertising era," the company boasts wide user marketing reach and deep consumer mindshare. ② Organization and Talent: The "top-tier, top-equipped" strategy, featuring "high incentives + full empowerment + career aspirations" at the executive level, attracts top talent. The organization is agile and can quickly adapt to changes in sales platform rules.
The "Single Focus, Multi-Brand, Globalization" strategy advances, outlining a clear long-term growth blueprint. 1) Kans product structure optimization expands boundaries: Beyond hit products like the Red/White Waist sets, single-use essences and men's skincare sets have surpassed RMB 100 million in sales. There is optimism about future new product breakthroughs, with the brand approaching the RMB 10 billion revenue milestone. 2) Multi-brand and IP portfolio: Brands like the maternal and infant brand NewPage, sensitive skin brand Anminyou, color cosmetics brand NanBeauty, and the maternal and infant brand Anpanman fill category gaps. Future plans include incubating IP brands like Ultraman, clarifying the path for multi-category, multi-segment expansion. 3) Globalization "Going Global": Future plans include expansion into North America and Europe, with the goal of building a hundred-billion-yuan beauty group.
Risk factors include slower-than-expected expansion of sales channels; slower-than-expected progress in nurturing new brands; high reliance on a single platform; weaker-than-expected consumer recovery; and rising raw material costs.
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