Haitong International has released a research report indicating that Melco International Development (00200) achieved a market share of 14.0% in the fourth quarter of 2025. This represents a decrease of 0.6 percentage points compared to the 14.6% share in the third quarter of 2025, but an increase of 0.7 percentage points from the 14.7% share in the fourth quarter of 2024. The year 2026 has commenced with robust performance, supported by a steady recovery in overall industry demand. Management has highlighted a continuous improvement in the company's market share in Macau since the beginning of 2026, noting strong pre-Chinese New Year booking levels and an optimized customer mix compared to 2025. The management anticipates the Countdown Hotel will open as scheduled in the third quarter of 2026. Concurrently, renovation work on the dining areas at City of Dreams is underway, which is expected to further enhance the customer experience in 2026. The intensity of industry competition aligns with expectations, showing stable trends consistent with commentary from peers. Key points from Haitong International are as follows:
The company's subsidiary, Melco Resorts & Entertainment, reported its fourth-quarter 2025 results. Operating revenue reached $1.29 billion, an increase of 8.6% year-on-year. Adjusted EBITDA amounted to $300 million, rising 11% compared to the same period last year, resulting in an adjusted EBITDA margin of 23.2%, which improved by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year. For the full year 2025, the company's operating revenue totaled $5.16 billion, up 11.3% year-on-year. Adjusted EBITDA was $1.32 billion, an increase of 15.5% compared to 2024, with a corresponding adjusted EBITDA margin of 25.5%, representing a 0.9 percentage point improvement.
In Macau, the company's gaming revenue grew by over 10% year-on-year, while operating revenue at City of Dreams increased by 18%. In the fourth quarter, operating revenue from the Macau operations was $1.10 billion, up 11.1% year-on-year and 0.1% quarter-on-quarter. Gaming and non-gaming businesses contributed $930 million and $180 million, respectively, with year-on-year changes of +11.5% and +8.8%, and quarter-on-quarter changes of +1.0% and -4.0%. Their respective contributions to the revenue mix were 84% and 16%. By property, operating revenue for City of Dreams, Studio City, and Altira was $700 million, $360 million, and $30 million, respectively. This represents year-on-year changes of +17.7%, +5.4%, and -18.9%, and quarter-on-quarter changes of +3.4%, -4.0%, and -9.5%. Their respective contributions to the property mix were 63%, 33%, and 2%.
Total rolling chip volume in Macau reached $11.76 billion, increasing 1.7% year-on-year and 8.0% quarter-on-quarter. VIP, mass market, and slot machine volumes were $6.28 billion, $2.83 billion, and $2.66 billion, respectively. Year-on-year changes were -2.0%, +8.5%, and +3.9%, while quarter-on-quarter changes were +12.5%, +2.4%, and +4.0%. Their respective shares of the total volume were 53.4%, 24.0%, and 22.6%. The VIP win rate at City of Dreams was 3.18%, exceeding the property's expected range of 2.85% to 3.15%. The company's overall VIP, mass market, and slot machine win rates for the fourth quarter of 2025 were 3.61%, 31.05%, and 2.94%, respectively. In the fourth quarter of 2024, the comparable rates were 2.38%, 31.22%, and 3.35%.
Gross gaming revenue in Macau amounted to $1.16 billion, a 9.9% increase year-on-year. This growth rate was lower than the industry's average increase of +15% for the same period. Sequentially, gross gaming revenue grew by 2.0%. VIP, mass market, and slot machine gross gaming revenues were $200 million, $850 million, and $80 million, respectively. Year-on-year changes were +31.1%, +7.9%, and -8.8%, while quarter-on-quarter changes were -2.7%, +4.8%, and -13.3%. Their respective contributions were 17.3%, 75.9%, and 6.8%. The year-on-year growth in gross gaming revenue this quarter was primarily driven by increased mass market rolling chip volume and a higher VIP win rate.
Adjusted EBITDA for the Macau operations was $280 million, rising 24% year-on-year but declining 11.2% quarter-on-quarter. The corresponding adjusted EBITDA margin was 25.5%, an improvement of 2.7 percentage points year-on-year but a decrease of 3.2 percentage points compared to the previous quarter. For City of Dreams and Studio City, adjusted EBITDA was $194 million and $87 million, respectively, representing year-on-year changes of +38.3% and +6.6%, and quarter-on-quarter changes of -6.4% and -17.3%. Their respective adjusted EBITDA margins were 27.8% and 24.0%, reflecting year-on-year improvements of +4.1 and +0.3 percentage points, but quarter-on-quarter declines of -2.9 and -3.9 percentage points.
Risk factors include macroeconomic growth falling below expectations, potential tightening of Macau's gaming regulatory policies, and intensifying competition in overseas gaming markets.
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