Investing in stocks requires reading Golden Kirin analyst reports, which are authoritative, professional, timely, and comprehensive, helping you uncover potential thematic opportunities! The strategy is to comprehensively benchmark against SpaceX. The commercial space industry is on the eve of dramatic change. On January 7, 2026, Liu Fei, Member of the Standing Committee of the Zhejiang Provincial Party Committee and Secretary of the Hangzhou Municipal Party Committee, while researching the aerospace industrial cluster in Hangzhou's Qiantang district, inspected Arrow Yuan Technology's project for the production, testing, and final assembly of medium-to-large liquid-fueled carrier rockets. He emphasized the need to "seize the strategic window of opportunity for the development of commercial spaceflight." A historic moment is approaching. This traces back to an epic IPO—according to Forbes, SpaceX initiated an internal stock tender offer in December 2025, driving its valuation up to $800 billion (approximately RMB 5.5 trillion), a 100% increase from $400 billion just four months prior. Furthermore, SpaceX plans to launch an IPO in 2026, with an expected valuation of $1.5 trillion. Scrutinizing the reasons behind SpaceX's soaring valuation reveals the absolute dominance of its reusable rocket technology. This prompts reflection: the STAR Market's fifth set of listing standards already applies to rocket companies that are "medium-to-large," "reusable," and have "successfully achieved orbit." Now, as China's commercial space sector collectively approaches the IPO threshold, facing massive demand for an estimated 200,000 satellites awaiting launch, who can truly pass the "reusability" test and become China's SpaceX? Everyone is eagerly watching. Comprehensively Benchmarking Against SpaceX A dark horse in the space sector emerges. Clearly, SpaceX is redefining the commercial logic of spaceflight. Upon detailed analysis, there are undoubtedly many reasons for SpaceX's valuation surge, but the truly meaningful moat is essentially one—"extreme reusability technology." Within China, two companies stand out as particularly impressive—Blue Arrow Aerospace and Arrow Yuan Technology. They comprehensively benchmark against SpaceX's Starship series, adopting the ultimate path of "liquid oxygen methane + stainless steel rocket body" to achieve ultra-low costs for medium-to-large reusable liquid-fueled launch vehicles. Among them, Arrow Yuan Technology has benchmarked itself against SpaceX since its founding, adhering to first principles. (1) Focus on liquid fuel, specializing in the reusability path; (2) Prospectively selected the ultimate path of "liquid oxygen methane + stainless steel rocket body"; (3) Directly targeting medium-to-large rockets to fully leverage economies of scale; (4) Ocean splashdown recovery, offering high fault tolerance and low cost; (5) Aiming for recovery attempts on the maiden flight in 2026, having already completed most core development milestones. First, focus on liquid fuel and specialize in the reusability path. Other rocket companies often adopt a transitional strategy of "solid-fuel first, then liquid-fuel," but the differences between solid and liquid routes are vast, and investments in solid-fuel technology are difficult to repurpose. Arrow Yuan Technology, however, skipped the solid-fuel stage from the outset, going all-in on medium-to-large reusable liquid-fuel rockets. Second, prospectively select the ultimate path of "liquid oxygen methane + stainless steel rocket body." Other rocket companies mostly use the mature but conservative path of "liquid oxygen kerosene + aluminum alloy rocket body," which allows for faster R&D iteration but also results in higher reuse costs. Arrow Yuan Technology directly benchmarks against SpaceX Starship's endgame solution of "liquid oxygen methane + stainless steel rocket body," promising more disruptive cost reduction. Third, directly target medium-to-large rockets to fully utilize scale effects. Other rocket companies often start with small rockets, accumulating milestones through "small, quick steps," but their launch capacity becomes relatively insufficient when facing constellation deployment demands numbering in the tens of thousands. Arrow Yuan Technology, however, precisely positioned itself from the start in the medium-to-large liquid launch vehicle segment—the "sweet spot" for commercial launches—where greater payload capacity enables significant cost reduction through scale. Fourth, ocean splashdown recovery offers high fault tolerance and low cost. Some rocket companies commonly imitate the Falcon 9's landing leg recovery mode. This not only involves complex and heavy landing leg structures but also requires substantial extra fuel, leading to significant payload loss and low fault tolerance. Arrow Yuan Technology, leveraging the advantages of high strength and good heat resistance of the stainless steel body, draws inspiration from the SpaceX Starship concept. Fully considering the engineering complexity of a "chopstick" catching mechanism, it directly adopts ocean splashdown recovery, which offers higher fault tolerance and lower cost. Fifth, aiming for recovery on the 2026 maiden flight, having completed most core progress. Some other rocket companies, often prioritizing stability for the maiden flight, forgo recovery attempts altogether, separating "orbit achievement" from "recovery," which can lead to longer development cycles. Arrow Yuan Technology, based on its solid historical progress, proposes this leapfrogging plan of "attempting recovery on the maiden flight." Building on the successful ocean splashdown recovery test of the first stage of the "Yuan Xingzhe-1" in May 2025, and the subsequent completion of combined swing hot-fire tests for the splashdown recovery engine and control system that same year, the company has already validated most of the challenging aspects prior to the maiden flight. The "Qiantang Hao" mission scheduled for late 2026 is expected to be not just an orbital launch, but a full-process recovery rehearsal. Commercial Space Companies Queue for IPOs Hangzhou Fosters China's Version of SpaceX with Full Force Recall the last day of 2025, when Blue Arrow Aerospace officially submitted its IPO prospectus, aiming for a market valuation as high as RMB 75 billion, signaling that China's commercial space sector has formally entered the capital realization phase. Beyond that, Zhongke Aerospace, Tianbing Technology, Galactic Energy, and i-Space have also embarked on their own IPO sprints. Amidst great anticipation, the "first stock of commercial spaceflight" on the STAR Market is imminent. Looking back to 2015, the "National Medium- and Long-Term Development Plan for Civil Space Infrastructure (2015-2025)" was issued,首次 proposing to encourage social capital to enter the space sector, marking the first year of commercial spaceflight and the opening of the investment序幕. Subsequently, a group of commercial space unicorns rapidly emerged, backed by a long line of investors. On this heated track, investors are divided into two categories: one adds to "current giants," while the other incubates "future champions." Blue Arrow Aerospace, leading the IPO charge, has raised over ten rounds of financing. A particularly notable round occurred in 2020, when the company completed a RMB 1.2 billion Series C+ round, supported by investors including Sequoia Capital China, Country Garden Venture Capital, Matrix Partners, Cornerstone Capital, and the National SME Development Fund. In December 2024, the National Manufacturing Transformation and Upgrade Fund invested RMB 900 million in Blue Arrow Aerospace, marking the appearance of state-backed capital. Hangzhou's choice, however, demonstrates sharper strategic vision and a differentiated investment logic. Unlike competing for established unicorns at high valuations, Hangzhou's state-owned capital platform (Hangzhou Capital), together with local hard-tech focused JiuZhi Capital, joined forces with top-tier institutions like Jinshajiang Hongyu and the Tsinghua-affiliated Infinite Fund SEE FUND to make a heavy bet on Arrow Yuan Technology. There was a time when, due to the excessively long industry cycle and high uncertainty, commercial space investors were relegated to the "cold bench." Now, the opportunity window of the STAR Market has opened, and the next few years will be the golden era for commercial spaceflight. Looking ahead, whether it's the leading Blue Arrow Aerospace or Arrow Yuan Technology benchmarking its technical path against SpaceX, the future of China's commercial space sector ultimately belongs to the hardcore companies that truly master the core technologies of "reusable," "medium-to-large" rockets. Of course, the capital frenzy is merely a leading indicator; we look forward to witnessing hundreds, even thousands, of truly reusable commercial Chinese rockets lighting up the vast skies. The road ahead is long and winding. For China's commercial space industry, this epic journey to dream of the stars has only just begun. China needs to birth its own SpaceX, and Hangzhou, through Arrow Yuan Technology, is striving with full force to cultivate a SpaceX that belongs to China.
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