Zhongtai Securities released a research report stating that leading tech companies' audio-video AI models have reached professional-grade capabilities, unlocking growth potential for AI-generated live-action content and accelerating the adoption of tools for AI comic-drama ("manju") production. The industry remains in a phase of rapid evolution across content supply, monetization models, and regulatory frameworks, creating competitive opportunities for platforms with strengths in content, production, or distribution—laying groundwork for 2026 expansion. Additionally, overseas expansion of manju avoids cost inflation from actors/venues, with lower production and distribution costs offering inherent advantages.
**Key Highlights:** **1. Alibaba, ByteDance Launch New Video Models; Douyin Unveils Manju AI Incentives** - *Alibaba Cloud* debuted Wan2.6 on Dec 16—China’s first role-playing video model supporting user-uploaded clips to generate cinematic content. It features synchronized audio-visual output, multi-shot consistency, 15-second max duration, and storyboard controls for ad/short-drama applications. - *ByteDance* introduced Seedance 1.5 Pro, enabling native joint audio-video generation with frame-accurate sync and multilingual support. Its cinematic shot control and 10x faster inference (vs. Sora 2) suit stable professional workflows. - *Douyin* announced subsidies covering 15% of tech costs for manju producers using ByteDance’s AI models at scale.
**2. Douyin’s Faster Approvals Fuel December Surge; 3D/AI Live-Action Styles Gain Traction** After migrating manju assets to a stricter review system on Nov 27, Douyin’s daily new releases initially dropped below 50. By Dec 15, approvals accelerated to 2,200+ weekly (3.8x prior week), prioritizing AI-generated and photorealistic content while rejecting low-quality submissions. - *Top 50 Trending Manju (Dec 8–14 vs. Dec 1–7):* 3D animated titles surged from 0 to 5 (50% share), while AI live-action doubled to 3 (18% share). Static comics held at 2%.
**3. Platform Competition Intensifies: Baidu’s Standalone App, Kuaishou’s Incentives** - *Baidu* plans to launch "You Manju," a dedicated app for iOS/Android. - *Kuaishou* offers 4–2% rebates for premiering PGC manju, plus cash rewards (¥5K–¥20K) for top monthly hits. - *Qimao* guarantees ¥10K–¥100K advances + 10–20% revenue share for S+-grade scripts, targeting 100 monthly productions by Q1 2026.
**4. Female-Targeted Content Gains Momentum for 2026 Breakout** Leading studios like Lingju Dongman and Xiaoming Taiji are testing female-oriented ("nüpin") manju, with Mantan Dongman allocating 10% capacity. The segment’s regulatory compliance and higher user monetization potential are expected to drive growth, mirroring short-drama trends.
**5. Overseas Expansion Emerges as Consensus for 2026** Early tests on TikTok and YouTube indicate strong overseas potential, with YouTube’s Greater China AI lead forecasting a 3x+ market expansion by 2026. Cost efficiencies (no actor/venue overhead) further bolster manju’s global appeal.
**Stock Picks:** - *IP Sources:* Rongxin Culture, Huarui Century, Chinese All Digital, Zhangyue Tech, China Literature, CITIC Press. - *Globalization Enablers:* Yeahka. - *AI/Platform Leaders:* Kuaishou-W, Bilibili-W, Kunlun Tech, Huazhi Shumei, Jecheng Shares.
**Risks:** Rising model costs, competition, regulatory tightening, or data inaccuracies.
Comments