Huachuang Securities has released a research report stating that the e-commerce express delivery industry is entering a new stage of high-quality development. Against the backdrop of ongoing anti-involution competition, industry pricing is expected to remain stable, while the market share of leading express delivery companies is expected to further increase. Tongda-series listed companies currently trade at approximately 9x PE for 2026 and around 8x PE for 2027. Huachuang Securities believes the sector is systematically undervalued, based on the relative resilience and diversified growth potential of express delivery demand, combined with relatively firm pricing and further room for cost reduction through scale and new technologies. Leading companies can seek a better balance among volume, price, and profit under the new normal of "anti-involution" and should command a certain premium. The report continues to strongly recommend YTO Express (600233.SH), ZTO Express (02057), and STO Express (002468.SZ), while being bullish on SF Holding (002352.SZ).
The main views of Huachuang Securities are as follows:
Industry: Parcel Volume Growth Shifts Gears, Quality Improvement and Price Firmness Take Priority, Leading Players Gain Share
Parcel Volume: Steady Growth in the First Three Quarters of 2026
First Three Quarters of 2026: Industry parcel volume growth of 4.3%, with STO Express leading in growth. 1) Industry: Parcel volume in the first three quarters of 2026 grew 4.3% year-on-year to 151.29 billion pieces. Of this, intra-city express volume was 11.0 billion pieces, down 7.3% year-on-year; inter-city express volume was 137.17 billion pieces, up 5.4% year-on-year; international/Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan express volume was 3.11 billion pieces, up 2.6% year-on-year. Intra-city, inter-city, and international/Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan volume accounted for 7.27%, 90.67%, and 2.06%, respectively.
2) Online shopping penetration rate: 25.7%. In the first three quarters of 2026, China's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 37.0 trillion yuan, up 1.1% year-on-year, of which physical online shopping amounted to 9.51 trillion yuan, up 3.8% year-on-year, with an online shopping penetration rate of 25.7%.
3) Performance of individual express companies: STO Express leads in growth. Parcel volume and market share in the first three quarters of 2026: YTO Express (25.0 billion pieces, 16.5%) > STO Express (22.0 billion pieces, 14.5%) > Yunda Holding (18.7 billion pieces, 12.3%) > J&T Express (18.0 billion pieces, 11.9%) > SF Holding (11.8 billion pieces, 7.8%). Note: J&T figures refer to China market volume, SF Holding refers to express delivery business volume, and ZTO's Q3 data has not yet been disclosed. In terms of parcel volume growth: STO Express (16.4%) > J&T Express China (11.5%) > YTO Express (10.5%) > industry (4.3%) > SF Holding (-2.4%) > Yunda Holding (-2.5%). (Note: STO Express acquired Dannon Logistics and its subsidiaries, and Dannon has been included in the company's consolidated financial statements since November 2025.)
2026 Q3: Industry parcel volume growth of 3.0%, STO Express maintains its lead. 1) Industry: Q3 2026 parcel volume reached 50.91 billion pieces, up 3.0% year-on-year. Of this, intra-city express volume totaled 3.78 billion pieces, down 5.3% year-on-year; inter-city express volume was 46.17 billion pieces, up 3.9% year-on-year; international/Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan express volume was 970 million pieces, down 4.9% year-on-year. Intra-city, inter-city, and international/Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan volume accounted for 7.4%, 90.7%, and 1.9%, respectively.
2) Performance of individual express companies: STO Express maintains its lead. Q3 2026 parcel volume growth: STO Express (17.6%) > J&T Express China (15.3%) > YTO Express (12.4%) > industry (3.0%) > Yunda Holding (-0.1%) > SF Holding (-6.6%). Note: STO Express figures include Dannon data.
Pricing: Anti-Involution Continues, Prices Gradually Recover
First Three Quarters of 2026: Anti-involution trend continues, per-ticket revenue steadily recovering. 1) Industry: Revenue in the first three quarters of 2026 reached 1,163.44 billion yuan, up 7.2% year-on-year; average revenue per ticket was 7.7 yuan, up 2.8% year-on-year. 2) Performance of individual companies in the first three quarters of 2026: STO Express (2.20 yuan, +9.1%) > YTO Express (2.13 yuan, -1.9%) > Yunda Holding (2.13 yuan, +9.6%); SF Holding per-ticket revenue was 14.48 yuan, up 4.7% year-on-year.
2026 Q3: Year-on-year trend largely maintains improvement. 1) Industry: Q3 2026 industry express revenue was 392.04 billion yuan, up 6.8% year-on-year; estimated Q3 2026 average revenue per ticket was 7.70 yuan, up 3.7% year-on-year. 2) Performance of individual companies: Year-on-year trend largely maintains improvement. Q3 cumulative per-ticket revenue: YTO Express 2.06 yuan, down 3.7% year-on-year (-0.08 yuan); STO Express 2.12 yuan, up 3.5% year-on-year (+0.07 yuan); SF Holding 14.58 yuan, up 7.4% year-on-year (+1.01 yuan); Yunda Holding 2.14 yuan, up 9.7% year-on-year (+0.19 yuan).
Earnings Summary: Franchise Express Firms Post Rapid Profit Growth Under Anti-Involution, Earnings Tiers Become Clearer; SF Holding Continues to Demonstrate Operational Resilience
Profit Analysis
First Three Quarters of 2026: Anti-involution drives earnings recovery, STO Express leads in growth. Net profit attributable to shareholders: SF Holding (8.22 billion yuan, -1.1%) > YTO Express (4.63 billion yuan, +60.9%) > STO Express (1.58 billion yuan, +108.5%) > Yunda Holding (1.26 billion yuan, +72.1%). In terms of non-GAAP net profit: SF Holding (7.51 billion yuan, +10.8%) > YTO Express (4.53 billion yuan, +63.4%) > STO Express (1.60 billion yuan, +111.1%) > Yunda Holding (1.15 billion yuan, +75.4%).
2026 Q3: Franchise express firms maintain high profit growth, SF Holding continues to demonstrate operational resilience. Net profit attributable to shareholders: SF Holding (2.71 billion yuan, +5.5%) > YTO Express (1.45 billion yuan, +39.0%) > STO Express (540 million yuan, +78.7%) > Yunda Holding (260 million yuan, +28.3%). In terms of non-GAAP net profit: SF Holding (2.53 billion yuan, +13.8%) > YTO Express (1.41 billion yuan, +39.8%) > STO Express (560 million yuan, +74.2%) > Yunda Holding (220 million yuan, +7.6%). Franchise express firms maintained high profit growth, with STO Express leading in growth rate.
Per-Ticket Analysis: STO Express leads in year-on-year growth of per-ticket non-GAAP profit in Q3 2026
Per-ticket net profit attributable to shareholders: In Q3 2026, STO Express led in year-on-year growth of per-ticket non-GAAP profit, with significant earnings elasticity from anti-involution. 2026 Q1-Q3: YTO Express 0.19 yuan > STO Express 0.072 yuan > Yunda Holding 0.067 yuan; Q3 2026: YTO Express 0.17 yuan > STO Express 0.070 yuan > Yunda Holding 0.04 yuan. Per-ticket non-GAAP net profit: 2026 Q1-Q3: YTO Express 0.18 yuan > STO Express 0.073 yuan > Yunda Holding 0.061 yuan; Q3 2026: YTO Express 0.16 yuan > STO Express 0.073 yuan > Yunda Holding 0.034 yuan. From a year-on-year perspective: 2026 Q1-Q3 per-ticket non-GAAP net profit: STO Express up 81.4% year-on-year (or +0.03 yuan), Yunda Holding up 79.8% year-on-year (or +0.03 yuan), YTO Express up 47.8% year-on-year (or +0.06 yuan); Q3 2026 per-ticket non-GAAP net profit: STO Express up 48% year-on-year (or +0.02 yuan), YTO Express up 24.3% year-on-year (or +0.03 yuan), Yunda Holding up 7.6% year-on-year (or +0.002 yuan).
Asset Analysis: STO Express, YTO Express, and Yunda Holding Decline Year-on-Year, SF Holding Increases Year-on-Year
Capital Expenditure: STO Express, YTO Express, and Yunda Holding decline year-on-year, SF Holding increases year-on-year. In the first three quarters of 2026, capital expenditures for SF Holding, YTO Express, Yunda Holding, and STO Express were 9.8 billion yuan, 4.98 billion yuan, 1.63 billion yuan, and 2.08 billion yuan, respectively, changing by +46.8%, -21.3%, -15.7%, and -1.3% year-on-year.
Investment Recommendation: Continue to Strongly Recommend the "High-Performing + Undervalued" Express Delivery Sector
We emphasize: 1. Assessment of industry development stage: We believe the e-commerce express delivery industry is entering a new stage of high-quality development. Against the backdrop of ongoing anti-involution competition, industry pricing will remain stable, while the market share of leading express delivery companies is expected to further increase. 2. Assessment of industry valuation: Tongda-series listed companies currently trade at approximately 9x PE for 2026 and around 8x PE for 2027. We believe the sector is systematically undervalued, based on the relative resilience and diversified growth potential of express delivery demand, combined with relatively firm pricing and further room for cost reduction through scale and new technologies. 3. We believe leading companies can seek a better balance among volume, price, and profit under the new normal of "anti-involution" and should command a certain premium. We continue to strongly recommend YTO Express, ZTO Express, and STO Express, while being bullish on SF Holding. Particularly for YTO Express, we believe: 1) "Anti-involution" in the e-commerce express delivery industry may become a "new normal," and YTO Express has shown the most significant improvement in relative advantages from market share to per-ticket net profit. 2) At extremely low market PE valuations, the company has three clear layers of undervaluation: digitalization and AI empowerment driving sustainable cost reduction to optimize the income statement; the company's ability to balance the harmonious coexistence of its franchise network ecosystem; and the potential of the company's own aviation capacity in international business. 3) We remain bullish on the investment opportunity in SF Holding, focusing on the company's "Gain Plan" to optimize its structure and its complementary collaboration with J&T Express, as well as the growth momentum beginning to be released in international business. Although oil prices remained elevated in Q3, the company adhered to operational optimization and lean management. By relying on the Gain Plan, full-chain management efficiency improvement, and the application of AI and intelligent equipment, it alleviated oil price cost pressure to a certain extent. Meanwhile, the company launched an "Activate Business" advanced mechanism in Q3 2025, advancing from scale-driven to value-driven, and gradually and dynamically optimizing its market strategy to jointly ensure high-quality business growth.
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