AI Enters the 'Trillion-Parameter' Era Driving the Rise of Cross-Domain Networks! Nomura: Poised to Unlock New Growth Space in the Optical Communications Market

Stock News09-23 14:20

Nomura's latest research report indicates that as AI model training scales surpass the trillion-parameter threshold and inference demand grows exponentially, the expansion of a single AI cluster or data center faces constraints in power, cooling, and land at both the scale-up and scale-out levels. This has given rise to distributed training—interconnecting multiple clusters or data centers into a unified compute pool for scheduling—which requires support from scale-across networks. Cross-domain environments demand high-speed optical network technologies, such as coherent optical modules, hollow-core optical fiber, and DCI/WAN/metro routers and switches, to build backbone networks across sites.

Compared with traditional DCI (data center interconnect), cross-domain networks impose higher networking requirements on bandwidth, latency, and packet loss, necessitating support from advanced technologies including high-speed coherent optical transceivers (800G/1.6T), optical circuit switches (OCS), and hollow-core optical fiber. Nomura believes the development of cross-domain networks will accelerate demand for these technologies. The firm expects Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd (HKG: 06869) to benefit from the commercialization of hollow-core optical fiber, while Zhongji Innolight Co Ltd (SZSE: 300308) and Accelink Technologies Co Ltd (SZSE: 002281) will benefit from growing demand for high-speed coherent optical transceivers. The brokerage has a "Buy" rating on all three stocks.

Additionally, NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ: NVDA) has introduced the concept of "scale-in," which uses DPUs and Ethernet to offload and accelerate traffic such as user access, data processing, storage read/write, and security isolation at the north-south boundary of AI factories. Scale-in connects AI factories and enterprise data to AI compute power, and Nomura believes it will become increasingly important in the era of agentic AI.

Key Technologies in Cross-Domain Networks: High-Speed Coherent Optical Modules, OCS, and Hollow-Core Optical Fiber

From an optical module perspective, IM-DD (intensity modulation-direct detection) modules used for scale-out have a limited transmission distance of under 2 kilometers, whereas coherent optical modules can extend to 80-120 kilometers, making them better suited for long-distance cross-domain scenarios. Furthermore, coherent-lite transceivers, first proposed by Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ: GOOGL) in 2021, utilize a simplified DSP. Nomura expects coherent-lite transceivers with enhanced DSPs will be adopted for cross-domain networks. Additionally, as noted in the firm's report "Global AI Trends Tracker—Optical Circuit Switches at the Heart of AI Networks," OCS, serving as all-optical switches, can provide flexible networking over long distances and high bandwidth, potentially becoming a key component in cross-domain networks.

On the fiber front, hollow-core optical fiber replaces quartz with air, inert gas, or vacuum as the transmission medium, achieving ultra-low-loss transmission latency compared with traditional fiber. This makes it more suitable for cross-domain networks that demand low latency.

Cross-Domain Network Total Addressable Market (TAM) and Competitive Landscape Analysis

Management at Ciena Corp (NYSE: CIEN) projected during its fiscal second-quarter 2026 earnings call that the cross-domain network market will reach $8-10 billion by 2029. Nomura believes major players in coherent optical transceivers, OCS, and optical fiber are all likely to benefit from this incremental market. In the 400G/800G ZR/ZR+ module segment, Marvell Technology Inc (NASDAQ: MRVL), Acacia—a subsidiary of Cisco Systems Inc (NASDAQ: CSCO), Ciena Corp (NYSE: CIEN), and Nokia Corp (NYSE: NOK) remain the primary players.

Core suppliers of hollow-core optical fiber include Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd (HKG: 06869), Hengtong Optic-Electric Co Ltd (SSE: 600487), Lightera—a subsidiary of Furukawa Electric, and Relativity Networks. Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ: GOOGL), Coherent Corp (NYSE: COHR), and Lumentum Holdings Inc (NASDAQ: LITE) are currently the main participants in the OCS market.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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