The memory chip market is undergoing a dramatic supply-side transformation triggered by the AI wave, with the强势回归 of a seller's market forcing buyers to accept unprecedented and苛刻 terms. According to sources within the supply chain, as reported by tech media outlets including Digitimes, SanDisk (SNDK.US) has presented some downstream clients with a contract form described as "unheard of" in the industry: requiring customers to pay the full amount in cash upfront to lock in supply quotas for the next 1 to 3 years. Despite the严苛条款, facing the rigid demand for storage equipment from AI infrastructure build-out, some cloud service providers (CSPs) are considering accepting these terms to avoid future supply disruption risks.
Simultaneously,剧烈波动 in prices is imminent. According to a client report from Nomura Securities, SanDisk plans to increase the price of its high-capacity 3D NAND flash memory chips used in enterprise solid-state drives (SSDs) by more than 100% month-on-month during March. Nomura Securities noted that this price hike plan is attributed to short-term supply shortages and growing medium-term demand for server-grade storage from the AI sector. This past Friday, SanDisk's stock price surged another 13%, again reaching a record high.
Cash is king: an unprecedented full prepayment system. Reportedly, since 2025, major NAND supplier SanDisk has frequently launched price increase offensives, with the recent "lock-in order" requirement breaking industry conventions. Supply chain sources indicate that SanDisk's proposed "100% cash prepayment" clause is aimed at securing supply guarantees for 1 to 3 years. This unconventional contract form has caused significant震动 within the industry. Typically, supply chain cooperation often utilizes installment payments or credit terms, making full prepayment a substantial challenge to the buyer's cash flow. However, reports indicate that due to持续增长的 AI demand and the lengthy time required for original storage manufacturers to expand production, some cloud service providers urgently needing to expand computing power are不得不 considering accepting this term. Furthermore, SanDisk has also expanded the scope of such contract negotiations to PC, smartphone, and module manufacturers.
Prices double: enterprise-grade storage leads the surge. While demanding full payment, product quotations are also soaring. Channel surveys by Nomura Securities show that multiple storage suppliers continue to push prices higher, with enterprise-grade NAND facing the most aggressive increases. Nomura explicitly stated in its report: "SanDisk's NAND pricing for enterprise SSDs could increase by more than 100% month-on-month during March." Nomura analysts believe that NVIDIA's Inference Context Memory Storage (ICMS) platform is one of the key factors driving enterprise storage demand this year. This platform, based on the BlueField-4 DPU, is equipped with a 512 GB SSD. Estimates suggest that if NVIDIA ships 50,000 VR NVL144 racks annually, this alone would consume approximately 0.439 exabytes of 3D NAND. While it remains unclear to what extent the doubling of enterprise product prices will affect the consumer market, Nomura warns that since the 3D NAND used in smartphones and PCs originates from the same foundries as enterprise-grade chips, consumer product prices typically follow enterprise price increases.
Capacity squeeze: supply crisis under AI priority. The root cause of the current situation lies in a fundamental shift in the capacity allocation strategies of the world's three major memory manufacturers (Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron). According to相关分析, these manufacturers are倾斜 most of their capacity towards higher-margin HBM (High Bandwidth Memory), primarily used for the AI market, leading to a significant compression of capacity originally allocated for producing standard DDR4/DDR5 and NAND. This structural shortage has triggered混乱与恐慌 within the supply chain: Tech giants are scrambling for supply: Reports indicate that Google's TPUs are highly dependent on HBM, and when seeking additional capacity from SK Hynix and Micron, they received responses of "impossible." Consequently, Google even dismissed a procurement executive responsible for memory supply and is recruiting a dedicated global memory commodity manager. Meta also plans to hire a dedicated "Global Memory Procurement Manager" to strengthen direct ties with upstream foundries. Panic stockpiling: To avoid price hikes and shortages, PC brands like Lenovo have begun actively accumulating inventory, even placing advance orders for their entire 2026 demand. Chaotic practices abound: Market rumors suggest Samsung's headquarters discreetly dispatched personnel to Taiwan to investigate suspected bribery involving employees and agents, indicating that不规范获利行为 are emerging under extreme shortage conditions. Currently, buyers with greater capital strength are已经开始 abandoning traditional long-term contract models,转而 accepting short-term contracts and high prices, with some甚至 adopting a "不问价格, buy if there's stock" approach.
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