Tesla Motors (TSLA.US), the electric vehicle maker led by Elon Musk, is losing its grip on the U.S. EV market, with its once-massive first-mover advantage steadily eroded by rivals, according to a stern warning issued Saturday by Gary Black, an investor at The Future Fund LLC.
Black made the remarks on the X platform in response to a question from user @TheTeslaBull about recommendations for quality electric vehicles, though he argued that was not the central issue. He asked instead how Tesla could halt a decline that saw its share of the U.S. EV market slide from 80% in 2020 to a record low of 41% in 2025, recovering only to roughly 52% in the first eight months of 2026, in order to justify a price-to-earnings ratio of more than 200 times, based on estimated adjusted earnings per share of about $2 for 2026.
He pointed out that Hyundai Motor Company, Toyota Motor Corporation (TM.US), General Motors Company (GM.US), Ford Motor Company (F.US) and Rivian Automotive Inc. (RIVN.US) are the best-performing players in the sector. Notably, Rivian plans to roll out a "point-to-point supervised" autonomous driving service starting at the end of 2026, and has set 2028 as its target date for Level 4 autonomy, to be deployed first in the R2 robotaxi developed in partnership with Uber.
Ford Motor Company's chief executive said during the company's third-quarter 2026 earnings call last week that the upcoming all-electric pickup, the Fathom, is expected to be priced at $28,350, a figure that came in above his own expectations. Thanks to bidirectional power transfer technology, owners will be able to power their homes without installing a wall-mounted inverter.
Although autonomous driving technology is not yet a major factor in consumers' vehicle purchasing decisions, Black stressed that it will bring enormous changes to the overall landscape of the auto industry and become an important force driving shifts in market share.
In terms of share price performance, Tesla's stock fell 0.87% in overnight trading, closing at $399.81.
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