The solar photovoltaic industry is undergoing a profound phase of adjustment during the first half of 2026, as revealed at a recent industry symposium hosted by the China Photovoltaic Industry Association.
According to a keynote report delivered by Wang Bohua, a senior official from the association, the manufacturing end of the sector experienced significant contraction. Polysilicon production fell by 9.8% year-on-year, wafer output dropped by 7.3%, cell production declined by 21.9%, and module manufacturing decreased by 35.1%.
On the application side, newly installed solar PV capacity reached approximately 72.07 GW in the first six months, representing a sharp decline of about 66% compared to the same period last year. In terms of price trends, as of July, polysilicon prices were down 42.3% from January, wafers fell 28.7%, cells decreased 27.7%, while modules saw a modest increase of 3.0% from January levels.
Wang Bohua noted that the entire primary supply chain saw a comprehensive reduction in output during the first half of 2026. From January to June, polysilicon output totaled 538,000 tons, wafer output reached 293 GW, cell production stood at 260.7 GW, and module output was 201.3 GW. The significant pullback in new solar installations was also evident, with first-half 2026 volumes still exceeding the average for the same period between 2021 and 2024. Monthly installation figures for the first half of 2026 remained within the median range of the past five years, with relatively moderate fluctuations.
Regarding exports, Wang Bohua reported that export values saw broad growth, with the share of wafer and cell exports increasing. This trend was driven by overseas capacity expansion, with cell exports experiencing particularly notable growth.
Wang Bohua pointed out that companies along the primary solar industry chain continue to face operational pressure, while global trade barriers are becoming more stringent. Trade barriers are diversifying in form, policies are being introduced at a faster pace with significantly shortened iteration cycles, and these measures are becoming more comprehensive, making them increasingly difficult to circumvent. The acceleration of overseas local capacity construction has spurred the introduction of such trade barriers. Furthermore, competition in overseas markets is intensifying. Overseas module capacity has grown rapidly, with some regions already facing oversupply. Capacity building for components other than modules is accelerating, and supply localization is steadily improving. The influence of foreign brands is growing, directly competing with Chinese companies and eroding overseas market share. Although overseas market prices are generally declining, they remain higher than prices for Chinese exported products.
Looking ahead to the full year, Wang Bohua projected that global new solar PV installations in 2026 will experience a periodic correction, though demand is expected to remain at elevated levels.
Wang Bohua emphasized the importance of a robust intellectual property ecosystem to support the industry's restructuring and transformation. He recommended strengthening protection systems to facilitate compliant international expansion. This includes actively participating in the construction and operation of patent pools, establishing a comprehensive intellectual property management system across the entire process, creating patent networks around core technologies, and reinforcing trade secret protection. He also stressed the need to prioritize compliance, closely monitor domestic export regulations and overseas regulatory policy changes, perfect technical export compliance review mechanisms, ensure legal and compliant technology transfers, and mitigate risks of core technology leakage and international legal sanctions.
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