Aluminum stocks continued their upward trajectory, with CHALCO (02600) rising 5.3% to HK$13.91, NANSHAN AL INTL (02610) gaining 4.98% to HK$64.25, CHINAHONGQIAO (01378) advancing 2.61% to HK$36.96, and CHUANGXIN IND (02788) climbing 2.31% to HK$24.8 at the time of writing. Market sentiment strengthened as concerns over overseas power shortages heightened expectations for production cuts in the global aluminum sector. CMB International noted that China's primary aluminum capacity utilization has reached approximately 99%, near the policy ceiling, while limited new capacity additions overseas are expected to maintain a global aluminum supply deficit. The institution forecasts a 15% year-on-year increase in average aluminum prices by 2026. Changjiang Securities highlighted that primary aluminum stocks offer attractive dividend yields of around 5%, with domestic capacity constraints and overseas power shortages reinforcing their resource scarcity. Combined with a potential recovery in global industrial activity following soft-landing interest rate cuts, these three factors are expected to drive valuation multiples for the primary aluminum sector from the current 8-10X range toward 12X-15X.
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