Joachim Nagel, a member of the European Central Bank's Governing Council and President of the German Bundesbank, has voiced concern over developments in the Middle East and reiterated that the ECB may still need to raise interest rates again.
Speaking in Ljubljana, Slovenia, on Wednesday, Nagel stated that he had felt optimistic on Monday, as oil prices had retreated to pre-conflict levels, Germany's cabinet had approved a pension reform package, and industrial data had shown improvement.
"But I think some of you have seen the news this morning," Nagel said. "Now I think we are back to square one. I still hope things will develop differently, but the latest news is that peace talks have stopped, and Trump has announced he will halt trade with Spain. Yes, it is strange. And energy prices are rising again."
His remarks came just hours after U.S. President Trump warned that a ceasefire with Iran may be over, following a new round of U.S. airstrikes on Iran and the revocation of waivers allowing Iran to sell oil.
International crude oil prices surged in response, with London Brent crude futures rising more than 6% to over $79 per barrel. However, this level remains well below the late April peak of over $126 per barrel.
Last week, during the ECB's annual forum in Portugal, policymakers broadly showed no urgency to act again as hostilities in the Middle East had eased, though no consensus was reached on the next policy direction.
Nagel said on Wednesday, "I do not know what decision will be made at the central bank's July meeting. Is a further rate increase possible? Yes. Is it possible to keep rates unchanged? Also yes, or we could take other measures."
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