Data released by The Conference Board indicates a slight uptick in US consumer confidence for the month of June, although the overall level remains low.
The Consumer Confidence Index rose to 91.2 in June, a modest increase of 0.6 points from the downwardly revised figure of 90.6 in May.
Breaking down the components, the Present Situation Index, which measures consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions, fell by 3.0 points to 116.4.
Conversely, the Expectations Index, which gauges consumers' short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions over the next six months, increased by 3.0 points to 74.4.
Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board, noted that the recent decline in oil prices has helped alleviate some consumer concerns about inflation, contributing to the slight improvement in confidence for June.
However, consumers' perception of the current labor market has weakened notably.
Peterson highlighted that the proportion of consumers who view jobs as "hard to get" rose to 22.5%, the highest level since January 2021, when that figure stood at 22.8%.
Simultaneously, consumers expect little change in the labor market over the next six months, though improved expectations for business conditions and income prospects partially offset the negative sentiment.
The report shows a slight improvement in consumers' assessment of current business conditions.
20.0% of respondents described current business conditions as "good," up from 19.2% in May, while those describing conditions as "bad" decreased from 16.7% to 16.5%.
Nonetheless, consumers' view of the job market deteriorated.
24.9% of consumers felt jobs were "plentiful," slightly higher than May's 24.8%, but the proportion viewing jobs as "hard to get" increased from 19.8% to 22.5%.
The labor market differential, which measures the strength of the job market, fell to 2.4 percentage points, a decline of 2.6 percentage points from the previous month.
Looking ahead, consumers have grown more optimistic about future business conditions.
19.0% of respondents expect business conditions to improve over the next six months, up from 18.8% in May, while those anticipating a deterioration decreased from 23.2% to 20.3%.
Consumers' outlook for the future job market remained largely unchanged.
15.2% expect more jobs to become available in the coming six months, down from 16.6% in May, while the proportion anticipating fewer jobs also declined, from 27.0% to 25.6%.
Regarding income expectations, consumer sentiment showed improvement.
20.8% of respondents anticipate their incomes to increase in the next six months, up from 19.2% in May, while those expecting a decrease fell from 14.5% to 13.2%.
The report noted that written feedback from consumers in June remained generally pessimistic about the economic outlook, but mentions of prices, oil, and gasoline prices declined, albeit from elevated levels.
Mentions of war, geopolitics, and conflict also decreased, suggesting a moderation in concerns about the inflationary impact of the Middle East conflict.
In terms of inflation expectations, both the average and median consumer expectations for inflation over the next 12 months eased from previous levels.
However, 61.5% of consumers still expect interest rates to rise over the next year, slightly lower than the 62.4% recorded in May.
In the stock market, despite ongoing volatility, expectations for further stock price gains over the next year strengthened, partly as the latter half of the June survey period coincided with the extension of a US-Iran ceasefire agreement.
Regarding household finances, consumers' net assessment of their current financial situation deteriorated for the third consecutive month, with the proportions describing their situation as "good" and "bad" nearly equal.
However, consumers' outlook for their future household finances improved, returning to levels seen earlier this year.
On recession expectations, the proportion of consumers who believe a US recession is "somewhat likely" over the next 12 months increased, though overall recession expectations remain low, and the share viewing a recession as "unlikely" declined.
Plans for major purchases over the next six months showed slight improvement, with more consumers shifting from "do not plan to buy" to "might buy," and the proportion definitively stating they "will buy" also edged higher.
Plans to buy automobiles continued to rise on a six-month moving average basis, and home-buying expectations improved.
Among specific product categories, furniture remained the top item consumers intend to purchase within the next six months, followed by smartphones, although purchase intentions for both categories cooled further in June.
Plans to buy major appliances and electronics either declined modestly or remained flat.
For service spending, more consumers shifted from "do not plan to increase spending" to "might increase spending," though trends varied across service categories.
Dining out at restaurants, bars, and takeout, along with spending on streaming, internet, and mobile services, and beauty and personal care, remained the primary areas for intended service expenditures.
Additionally, overall travel intentions for the next six months declined in June, primarily due to a decrease in domestic travel plans.
International travel plans, however, increased.
Meanwhile, consumer expectations for personal travel expenditures on items like hotels, motels, and airfare or train tickets saw a moderate rise.
The survey, conducted for The Conference Board by Toluna, is based on an online sample with a preliminary cutoff date of June 23rd.
The survey period ran from June 1st to June 23rd, encompassing the period of the extended US-Iran ceasefire agreement.
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