Zhongtai Securities released a research report stating that against the backdrop of a shift from "price wars" to "value wars," market share in the express delivery industry is expected to gradually concentrate towards companies with superior service quality, stronger management capabilities, and healthier networks. Furthermore, these companies are anticipated to achieve more significant cost reductions and efficiency improvements by leveraging their own resource advantages. Key factors to monitor include regulatory intensity, volume and price performance, and changes in the competitive strategies of leading enterprises. For individual stocks, the focus is on ZTO Express-W (02057) and YTO Express Group (600233.SH). It is recommended to watch STO Express (002468.SZ), Yunda Holdings (002120.SZ), and S.F. Holding Co.,Ltd. (002352.SZ). Zhongtai Securities' main views are as follows:
Vicious price wars are unlikely to make a strong comeback, and "anti-involution" efforts may exceed expectations. 1) Policy Side: Top-down measures to curb "involution-style" competition are expected to continue. Since the second half of 2025, with the ongoing advancement of "anti-involution" policies,恶性竞争 has been effectively addressed, leading to express price increases in multiple provinces across China. From August to November, the single-ticket revenue of A-share "Tongda" express delivery companies showed a continuous month-on-month increasing trend. The policy stance on "anti-involution" remains firm; the Central Economic Work Conference in December 2025, while outlining economic tasks for the coming year, proposed formulating regulations for building a unified national market and deepening the crackdown on "involution-style" competition. The National Postal Work Conference in 2026 also signaled stronger supervision and improved services, proposing comprehensive measures to tackle "involution-style" competition. 2) Enterprise Side: Safeguarding rights, the new "Social Security Regulations" are理顺ing the cost-price transmission path. The "Social Security New Regulations" are expected to accelerate the improvement of social security coverage rates. The express delivery industry chain faces pressure from rising labor costs, which may be passed on through price increases, forming policy synergy with the "anti-involution" drive. Based on a model calculating the incremental full-link cost per ticket for franchise-based express companies under different assumptions of achieving full social security coverage, the full-link cost per ticket shows a gradual increasing trend as coverage expands. 3) Industry Side: With slowing industry volume growth, value competition becomes key. In the context of "anti-involution," express delivery prices are returning rationally, the trend towards lighter and smaller parcels is weakening, and strengthened regulatory oversight on the compliant operation of e-commerce platforms is expected to help "de-bubble" parcel volumes. Against the expectation of a lower growth rate中枢 for industry volume (according to the 2026 National Postal Work Conference, express business volume grew 13.7% year-on-year in 2025, and is预计 to grow about 8% year-on-year in 2026), value competition centered on "cost reduction, quality improvement, and efficiency enhancement" has become crucial for express companies to build competitive advantages and gain market share.
Exploring the potential for full-link cost reduction, with the final mile increasingly seen as the decisive battleground. 1) Sorting and Transfer环节: As parcel volumes continue to expand, the marginal cost-reduction effects from economies of scale are gradually diminishing. Leading franchise-based express companies are primarily reducing costs and improving efficiency by optimizing routes, increasing vehicle load rates, and enhancing sorting efficiency. By H1 2025, the single-ticket transfer cost for "Tongda" express companies had fallen to around 0.60 yuan, and the potential for further cost reduction at the headquarters' transfer环节 may gradually narrow. 2) Final Mile环节: As the "last mile" of express service, final delivery directly impacts user experience and logistics efficiency, with related costs accounting for a significant portion of the full-link cost. "Optimizing and innovating" delivery outlets will become a key focus. With the continuous advancement of automation, unmanned delivery, and other measures, there is预计 to be significant room for further cost optimization. Under the franchise model, the investment and optimization costs for final-mile equipment are borne by franchisees. Therefore, the progress and effectiveness of applying new products and technologies in cost reduction are closely tied to the operational status and cooperation level of the outlets. Leading companies with better network conditions and stronger empowerment capabilities are likely to have an advantage.
Risk warnings include risks related to changes in industry policies, risks of demand growth falling short of expectations, risks of恶性价格竞争, risks of cost reduction and efficiency improvements not meeting expectations, risks regarding the credibility of third-party data, and risks associated with untimely updates of used information and data.
Comments