Guosheng Securities released a research report stating that the business scale growth of J&T EXPRESS-W (01519), driven by e-commerce dividends in Southeast Asia and new markets, coupled with improving profitability in China, will collectively drive the company's high future performance growth. The firm forecasts J&T EXPRESS's adjusted net profit for 2025-2027 to be $371 million, $571 million, and $764 million, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 85.2%, 54.0%, and 33.8%, corresponding to adjusted EPS of $0.040, $0.061, and $0.083 per share. Considering the company's high growth potential in the Southeast Asian and Latin American & Middle Eastern markets should command a valuation premium, the firm assigns a 2026 target P/E of 27x. Combined with the forecasted 2026 adjusted EPS of $0.061 per share, this corresponds to a fair value estimate of HK$12.90, leading to a "Buy" rating. The main viewpoints of Guosheng Securities are as follows:
A dark horse in global express delivery, driven by high growth across three regions, J&T EXPRESS is a global logistics company that rose from Southeast Asia and successfully expanded into China and Latin America & the Middle East, with its delivery network covering 13 countries. Currently, the core investment thesis is that the company is simultaneously benefiting from a triple tailwind: the rise of e-commerce and social media platforms in Southeast Asia, profit recovery and standardization export amid China's "anti-involution," and the explosive growth of e-commerce in new markets.
Southeast Asia serves as the company's foundation market and profit anchor, where its market share steadily ranks first in the industry. In 2025, the company successfully capitalized on the strategic opportunity of TikTok Shop's explosive growth in Southeast Asia, deeply collaborating to handle its mainstream parcel volume, driving its market share up to 32.8% (H1 2025). Parcel volume in Southeast Asia grew 65% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, while adjusted EBIT for H1 2025 increased 74% year-on-year. Through continuous cost optimization and operational experience empowerment, the company has maintained healthy profitability while gaining market share. The Southeast Asian market is expected to maintain relatively high growth rates over the next five years and contribute the main profit increment.
China constitutes the scale foundation, contributing approximately 75% of the company's parcel volume. The advanced and mature express delivery technology and experience developed by the company in China are being systematically leveraged to empower operations in Southeast Asia and new markets, helping it gain technological and experiential advantages overseas, continuously reducing costs, and enhancing its global regional competitive synergy. Furthermore, with the progression of "anti-involution" in China's express delivery industry and implemented price increases in various regions in the second half of the year, revenue per parcel has significantly rebounded, and profitability in the China region is expected to improve.
The new markets in Latin America and the Middle East represent vast potential in blue oceans, with both total GDP and per capita levels higher than Southeast Asia, yet e-commerce penetration remains low, indicating huge development potential. The e-commerce market in these regions was accelerating its growth in 2025. Leveraging its mature regional agency model and global network capabilities, the company has already partnered with leading platforms like Mercado Libre and emerging platforms like TikTok Shop in these new markets, steadily increasing its share in a still fragmented landscape. Parcel volume in new markets grew 31% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025. In H1 2025, the new markets achieved positive adjusted EBITDA for the first time, indicating operations are on track. With high business volume growth driving scale effects, the new markets are expected to achieve a turnaround in adjusted EBIT to profitability in 2025. From a medium to long-term perspective, the new markets are gradually becoming a crucial growth engine for the company.
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